Trump’s Trade Gambit: Surprise tariff comments jolt U.S.-China talks ahead of Geneva summit

Just hours after President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiators boarded a plane for crucial U.S.-China economic talks in Geneva, the president threw a curveball — publicly suggesting he might slash tariffs on China from 145% to 80%.

Though the statement appeared impulsive, insiders say Trump’s remarks weren’t entirely unexpected by his negotiating team. Internally, they had already been discussing a potential tariff reduction ahead of the Geneva summit. Still, the news blindsided Chinese officials, adding tension to the high-stakes meetings.

Trump also took the opportunity to spotlight Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stating that he would have the final say on tariff decisions. The move was more strategic than genuine, intended to elevate Bessent’s profile in the eyes of Chinese officials. In truth, both U.S. and Chinese negotiators know any major breakthrough will require sign-off from Trump and President Xi Jinping.

Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer arrived in Geneva for two days of intensive talks. While expectations for sweeping agreements remain low, officials from both sides are aiming for meaningful steps toward economic de-escalation. U.S. officials stress that these negotiations with China are distinct from the dozens of bilateral trade deals Trump is pursuing elsewhere — including ongoing efforts in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly with South Korea and Japan.

The approach to China, in contrast, is more methodical. Trump’s team hopes to kick off with mutual de-escalation, eventually pressing Beijing to act on key U.S. priorities — from curbing fentanyl production to reviving parts of the stalled “Phase One” trade deal. Discussions on China’s export controls on rare earth minerals may also be on the table, but a comprehensive deal remains a distant goal — unless Trump shifts course.

The Trump Factor

Inside Trump’s team, there’s a constant caveat: the president is the wild card. His unpredictability continues to loom over negotiations, with advisors acknowledging he could shift strategies at any moment. Still, U.S. officials see encouraging signs: both countries coordinated announcements of the Geneva meetings, signifying a mutual interest in progress.

Leading China’s delegation is He Lifeng, one of Xi Jinping’s most trusted economic advisors, alongside security aide Wang Xiaohong. On the U.S. side, Greer — a veteran of Trump’s first term — noted the serious tone of the meetings, saying “they’re sending real people to talk to us about real issues.”

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett echoed that optimism, calling recent developments “promising” and citing a new tone of “respect and collegiality” from both camps.

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A Reset in Relations?

This diplomatic thaw contrasts sharply with the frosty early weeks of Trump’s second term, during which Chinese officials reportedly struggled to engage with U.S. counterparts. That disconnect, according to European diplomats, left Beijing frustrated and confused — until they realized Trump intended to recalibrate the entire U.S.-China relationship using economic force.

China’s retaliation, though expected, deepened the rupture. U.S. officials believe the Chinese economy is too fragile to endure a prolonged trade war, citing recent data that highlights systemic vulnerabilities and the risk of a trade freeze with the world’s largest economy.

Trump’s “White Whale”

Behind the strategy lies Trump’s enduring obsession: striking a landmark economic deal with China. Advisers describe it as his “white whale” — the economic equivalent of his elusive quest for a Nobel Peace Prize. Though Trump has shown flashes of hawkishness, he’s also demonstrated a readiness to pivot in pursuit of legacy-defining breakthroughs.

With signals of quiet outreach from Beijing — including interest in addressing the fentanyl crisis — the door may be cracking open. Whether Trump seizes the moment remains uncertain. But in the complex theater of global trade, one thing is clear: all eyes are on Geneva.