Venezuela raid revives fears of U.S.–Russia sphere-of-influence deal over Ukraine

Fresh concerns have emerged over a possible return to great-power “sphere of influence” politics following a dramatic U.S. military operation in Venezuela, reviving memories of warnings issued years earlier by Donald Trump’s former Russia adviser about a proposed geopolitical trade-off involving Ukraine.

Three years before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Fiona Hill, a former White House adviser on Russia, told the U.S. Congress that Moscow had signalled interest in what she described as a “very strange swap arrangement” — reduced Russian involvement in Venezuela in exchange for freedom of action in Ukraine.

Hill, a Durham-born Russia specialist and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, testified in 2019 that the Kremlin appeared to be invoking a logic similar to the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, under which Washington asserted dominance over the Western Hemisphere.

“They were basically signalling: you have your Monroe Doctrine, you want us out of your backyard — well, we have our own version of this. You’re in our backyard in Ukraine,” she told lawmakers at the time.

Those remarks have resurfaced following a U.S. “smash-and-grab” military operation on Saturday that reportedly led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

The operation, carried out by elite Delta Force units, was said to have met minimal resistance, with only minor injuries sustained and little response from Russian-supplied air defences.

The swift operation has sparked debate among analysts over whether the move sends a broader signal to Moscow at a time when Russia remains locked in war with Ukraine and U.S. support for Europe is perceived to be wavering.

John E. Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said the action could reinforce fears in Kyiv that Washington and Moscow may be drifting toward an informal understanding over their respective regions of influence.

“Trump’s very clear energetic influence in the Western Hemisphere could lead to an understanding that we get to run things here and they get to run things in their neighbourhood,” Herbst said. “There are some Ukrainians who’ve shared that thought.”

Russia’s response has been mixed. Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and close ally of Vladimir Putin, condemned the operation as unlawful but suggested it was consistent with Trump’s long-standing approach to defending U.S. national interests, describing Latin America as America’s “backyard.”

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Hill noted that Medvedev’s language echoed Russian rhetoric from 2019, when Moscow openly compared its stance on Ukraine to Washington’s Monroe Doctrine.

In recent months, the Trump administration has embraced a more assertive hemispheric posture — dubbed by some analysts as the “Donroe Doctrine” — aimed at keeping rival powers such as Russia and China out of the Western Hemisphere.

“This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live — and we’re not going to allow it to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted cautiously but pointedly when asked about the raid. “If you can do this with dictators, so easily, then the United States knows what needs to be done next,” he told reporters, smiling wryly.

Russian senator Alexey Pushkov accused Washington of dragging the world back to “the savage imperialism of the 19th century,” while pro-war bloggers on Telegram openly praised the efficiency of the U.S. operation, with some suggesting Russia’s military could learn from it.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, issued a measured statement condemning Maduro’s human rights record but stressing that events should unfold “in accordance with the principles of international law,” reflecting Kyiv’s sensitivity to endorsing unilateral military action.