2027 race: ADC battles setbacks, arrests, internal strains as opposition fortunes waver

As political activities gradually gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is grappling with mounting challenges that analysts say could define its prospects in the coming years.

Once touted by some observers as a potential rallying platform for disenchanted political blocs, the party now faces a combination of electoral disappointments, legal troubles involving prominent figures, and internal cohesion concerns — developments that have cast doubt on its readiness to anchor a formidable opposition movement.

The recent Federal Capital Territory (FCT) area council elections exposed what many analysts describe as structural weaknesses within the ADC’s political machinery.

Despite high-profile campaigns and visible media engagement, the party failed to convert publicity into electoral victories across key councils in Abuja.

Political watchers argue that the FCT polls offered the ADC an opportunity to test its grassroots mobilization strength and coalition-building capacity ahead of 2027. However, the outcome raised fresh concerns about voter penetration and organizational depth.

Veteran journalist and former presidential aide, Reuben Abati, speaking on The Morning Show on Arise Television, said the ADC failed to translate campaign efforts into tangible results.

“We just hope that all the stakeholders, including the ADC that put up shows in Abuja and got nothing, will learn from this and all the parties will strategize,” Abati said, noting that future implications remain uncertain.

Similarly, former Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission, Chidi Odinkalu, criticised opposition parties over their handling of the elections. Speaking on Politics Today on Channels Television, Odinkalu described the opposition as ineffective and disorganised.

“It’s difficult to speak to the ineptitude of political opposition in Nigeria. They are not serious,” he said, adding that the country currently lacks a coherent opposition force.

Political tensions escalated last week following the arrest and detention of former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, by agencies including the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC), Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and the Department of State Services (DSS).

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While the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) maintains that the actions are part of ongoing investigations, opposition voices have described the move as politically motivated, especially as political alignments intensify ahead of 2027.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar raised concerns about El-Rufai’s health and welfare, urging the Federal Government to ensure his safety and constitutional rights. Reports that El-Rufai suffered a nosebleed while in custody and that family members were allegedly denied access have further fueled political debate.

In addition, former Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, also linked to the ADC, was recently arrested and detained by the EFCC — a development that has unsettled party ranks.

In Enugu State, the Enugu State Structures for Signage and Advertisement Agency (ENSSAA) introduced a mandatory N150 million permit fee for political campaign advertising ahead of the 2026 and 2027 elections.

The policy, under Governor Peter Mbah, has been defended as a regulatory measure. However, opposition parties, including the ADC, described the fee as prohibitive and unconstitutional, arguing that it disproportionately affects smaller parties.

In a statement signed by Paul Anigbogu on behalf of the Enugu ADC Media Team, the party vowed to challenge the policy in court if not rescinded.

Alleged Attack on Peter Obi

Tensions escalated further following reports of an alleged assassination attempt on former presidential candidate Peter Obi.

According to Dr. Yunusa Tanko, National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, armed men allegedly trailed party members from the ADC secretariat to the Benin residence of John Odigie-Oyegun, firing shots at the gate and damaging vehicles.

READ ALSO: ADC blasts APC over electoral act amendment, warns against ‘democratic backsliding’

“Democracy is in danger,” Tanko said in a statement.

Obi, who was the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in 2023 before aligning with the ADC, remains one of the most recognisable opposition figures challenging President Bola Tinubu.

Electoral Act Amendment Raises Fresh Concerns

Adding to the controversy is the newly signed 2026 Electoral Act amendment, which provides for both manual and electronic transmission of election results.

In a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC criticised the amendment, warning that the provision for manual transmission could introduce ambiguity and weaken public confidence in elections.

The party pledged to mobilise Nigerians “toward vigilance” and defend democratic processes through constitutional means.

‘No Structured Opposition’ — Analyst

Public affairs analyst Nduka Odo of Peaceland University, Enugu, said Nigeria currently lacks a structured and coordinated opposition capable of challenging the APC in 2027.

Describing the ADC as a “sketch” of what an opposition party should be, Odo argued that isolated voices do not constitute effective opposition.

“An opposition needs force, momentum, coordination,” he said, adding that the party’s response to the Electoral Act amendment and its performance in Abuja signalled the need for urgent internal reorganisation.

Odo also warned that continued defections to the ruling party could weaken democratic checks and balances, stressing that structured opposition is vital for governance stability.

Road to 2027

With less than two years to the next general elections, the ADC’s ability to resolve internal divisions, withstand external pressures and build a cohesive national coalition may determine whether it can emerge as a credible alternative in Nigeria’s evolving political landscape.

For now, analysts say the party faces an uphill battle as the race to 2027 gathers pace.