Ambush warfare claims over 1,000 lives in Nigeria as soldiers bear heaviest toll

At least 1,007 people were killed in ambush attacks across Nigeria between 2019 and 2025, underscoring the sustained intensity of asymmetric warfare against state authority and the heavy human cost borne by the country’s security forces.

Data covering the seven-year period show that soldiers accounted for 454 of the fatalities, making the Nigerian military the single largest category of victims.

When combined with police officers and other security operatives, deaths among state security personnel exceeded half of all recorded fatalities, highlighting the frontline exposure of government forces in counterinsurgency and internal security operations.

The figures reveal a stark regional imbalance, with ambush attacks overwhelmingly concentrated in northern Nigeria. The North East and North West together accounted for more than 90 per cent of all deaths nationwide.

The North East recorded 576 fatalities, reflecting the enduring presence of jihadist groups in the region, while the North West followed with 338 deaths amid escalating banditry and rural violence.

By contrast, the North Central recorded 71 fatalities, and the South East, South South and South West combined accounted for fewer than 40 deaths over the entire period.

Security analysts say the data reinforce long-standing concerns about uneven security pressure across the federation.

“The geographical concentration of ambush attacks shows that Nigeria is still fighting a largely northern war,” said a Lagos-based security analyst.

“Despite improvements in some areas, the North East and North West remain theatres of sustained armed confrontation.”

At the state level, Borno emerged as the epicentre of ambush-related violence, recording 456 fatalities — nearly half of the national total.

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Analysts attribute this to the entrenched presence of Boko Haram and its splinter factions, as well as the state’s vast terrain and porous borders.

Zamfara followed distantly with 163 deaths, while Yobe recorded 99 fatalities. Kebbi and Niger states reported 87 and 57 deaths respectively, indicating the spread of ambush tactics along key transit routes and rural communities in the North West and parts of the North Central.

Other states, including Katsina, Sokoto and Kaduna, each recorded between 20 and 33 deaths, while several southern states reported single-digit figures.

The data also identify Boko Haram as the single deadliest actor, accounting for 590 fatalities — more than half of all deaths recorded nationwide. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) was linked to 82 deaths, while armed bandit groups were responsible for 329.

Smaller numbers were attributed to attacks involving armed herdsmen and pro-Biafra groups, though analysts note their combined toll remained marginal compared with jihadist and bandit violence in the north.

“Ambushes have become a preferred tactic because they neutralise the state’s conventional military advantage,” said a counterinsurgency researcher. “They exploit intelligence gaps, terrain familiarity and mobility, particularly against patrols and convoys.”

Beyond the 454 soldiers killed, 52 police officers lost their lives, while 275 other security operatives — including paramilitary forces — were also killed. In total, security agents accounted for well over half of all fatalities.

The data further show that 224 militants were killed during ambush encounters, suggesting that many incidents escalated into prolonged firefights rather than brief hit-and-run attacks.

According to military analysts, this points to a tactical shift by armed groups. “These are no longer simple roadside attacks,” said a retired army officer. “They increasingly involve coordinated assaults designed to inflict maximum casualties and seize weapons.”

A year-by-year breakdown indicates that ambush-related killings peaked in 2020, when 287 deaths were recorded. Fatalities declined to 223 in 2021 and dropped sharply to 113 in 2022.

The downward trend stalled in 2023, with deaths rising slightly to 116, before easing to 111 in 2024. In 2025, fatalities fell further to 61 — the lowest figure since 2019, when 96 deaths were recorded.

“The reduction in fatalities is encouraging, but it does not mean the threat has disappeared,” said a defence policy expert. “The persistence of ambush attacks over seven consecutive years shows that armed groups remain resilient and adaptive.”

Security specialists argue that lasting progress will require more than tactical victories. They point to the need for better intelligence coordination, improved troop protection, enhanced local engagement and sustained investment in surveillance and logistics.

“As long as governance deficits, poverty and weak state presence persist in vulnerable regions, ambush warfare will remain a tool of choice for non-state actors,” an analyst said.

Despite the overall decline since the 2020 peak, the data underline the continuing challenges facing Nigeria’s security architecture — and the heavy price paid by those tasked with defending the state.