What really attracted my interest in the upcoming Edo State governorship election was an old picture of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and his beautiful foreign wife, Lara. It trended on the social media some days ago. The caption of the picture reads, “They are saying this is the only foreign investment Adams brought to Edo State.”

As a former governor of Edo, the loud-mouthed Oshiomhole has not been able to take his eyes off the politics of the state. As a strong chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), he is among those plotting seriously to snatch power from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. But will he and his party succeed?

Let’s examine some scenarios here. Seventeen political parties will slug it out on Saturday, September 21, 2024. Among these 17 parties, the contest essentially is between the APC candidate, Monday Okpebholo, and the PDP candidate, Asuerinme Ighodalo. The Labour Party’s candidate, Olumide Akpata, will make some marks. But I doubt if he will make any major impact.

No doubt, Akpata has a great pedigree. Born on October 7, 1972, he attended King’s College, Lagos, and proceeded to the University of Benin in 1989 where he later obtained his bachelor’s degree in law. He was called to the Nigerian Bar in 1993. He is a renowned lawyer and indeed, a former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). When he was the President of the NBA, he fought for the rights of many Nigerians. He has the capacity to work for the good of Edo people and also has the goodwill of the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 election, Mr. Peter Obi, who is revered in Edo. Last week, Obi led Akpata’s first campaign in Benin City, the Edo State capital. He urged voters to turn out en masse and support Akpata, saying he would bring the much-needed change to move Edo forward.

Nevertheless, the LP is battling with internal conflict both at the national and state levels. One faction of the Edo State LP, led by former Edo State House of Assembly Speaker, Elizabeth Ativie, is loyal to the embattled factional national chairman of the party, Barrister Julius Abure, while the other faction not loyal to Abure is led by Barrister Kelly Ogbaloi. This created a vacuum which seriously affected the campaign of the LP. Hence, though Edo people love Obi, the possibility of their giving victory to Akpata in the election is remote.

Also remote is the possibility of electing Senator Okpebholo of the APC, his pedigree notwithstanding. Born in 1970 at Uromi in Edo State, Okpebholo attended the University of Benin where he obtained a bachelor’s degree in agricultural economics and a master’s in public administration. He also has a PhD in agricultural economics from the University of Ibadan. He is said to be an entrepreneur. In a recent campaign rally in Ovia North Local Government Area (LGA), Okpebholo made a gaffe – that he would provide citizens of the state with insecurity. The video of his speech instantly went viral, as a number of people questioned his preparedness to govern the state. He corrected himself though when Oshiomhole, standing beside him, gave him a signal.    

Undoubtedly, the APC is not yet a popular party in the South-South and South-East regions of Nigeria. In the six states of the South-South, for instance, it only rules in Cross River State. The rest of the states are ruled by the PDP. Even, its victory in some states was achieved through rigging, intimidation and harassment of voters. It also deployed these strategies during the presidential election of 2023 to grab power at the centre. In Lagos, for instance, thugs sympathetic to the party unleashed mayhem on some opposition party members. Voters who would not vote for the APC were warned not to bother coming out to vote. Some of those who dared come out were brutalized. In most cases, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies looked away while these atrocities were being committed. Aggrieved parties were asked to go to court. The judiciary ended up giving judgments, most of which looked more like abracadabra.  

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There are fears that these same tactics may be deployed in the upcoming election in Edo. Already, the PDP has accused the APC of orchestrating the intimidation of its members in the state. It alleged that the police arrested about 10 of its key members and detained them in Abuja.  

Even the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of INEC in Edo, Anugbum Onuoha, is alleged to be a known APC supporter and apologist. He is a cousin to Nyesom Wike, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister who is a member of the PDP but dines and wines with the APC. Onuoha also reportedly worked as Commissioner and Special Adviser for Lands, Survey and Housing to Wike when he was the governor of Rivers State.

Wike, who has acknowledged that Onuoha is his cousin, fell apart with Governor Godwin Obaseki after the 2020 governorship election in Edo State. Obaseki told Wike, who played a prominent role in his re-election, that there was no room for political bullies and overlords in Edo.

All these explain why the PDP refused to sign the peace accord all parties signed last week. The chairman of the party in Edo, Anthony Aziegbemi, has demanded the redeployment of the REC and the state police commissioner, Nemo Edwin-Iwo, from the state. Curiously, the APC, though it later signed the peace accord, had earlier threatened that it would not sign it. The Edo State APC Chairman, Jarrett Tenebe, claimed the police were unable to arrest members of other parties responsible for alleged attacks on their members.

Peace accord or no peace accord, the poll may likely go the way of the PDP. Its candidate, Ighodalo, has what it takes to govern Edo well. In terms of education, he attended King’s College, Lagos, and obtained a bachelor’s degree in economics at the University of Ibadan in 1981. Between 1981 and 1984, he studied law at the London School of Economics and Political Science and went to the Nigerian Law School between 1984 and 1985. He sat on the board of many private and public companies and was Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sterling Bank Plc. He is a founding partner of the corporate and commercial law firm, Banwo and Ighodalo, which specializes in capital markets, energy and natural resources, mergers and acquisitions, among others. He is a member of many professional associations, including the NBA, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators (AIPN), USA. He hails from Okaigben, Ewohimi in Esan South East LGA of Edo State.

In any case, Ighodalo has the strong backing of Governor Obaseki, who will not sit by and watch another party scheme and snatch away victory from his party. Yes, the centre controls the police and the military, but the governor remains the chief security officer of his State. I believe he will do everything possible to prevent any rigging of the election. He has even made it clear that the election is a do-or-die affair. I foresee a combustible poll.

All things being equal, Ighodalo appears set to clinch clear victory in the election. No doubt, the APC will try all the tricks in the book. Oshiomhole will likely deploy the type of ‘talisman’ that made him win over his ‘Oyinbo’ wife. But he and his party may not succeed. Just like Edo people told him in the 2020 governorship election when he tried to borrow President Bola Tinubu’s godfather tactics, “Edo no be Lagos.”