Lagos food prices mixed in May as staples drop, others surge

The Lagos food market posted a mixed performance in May 2025, with notable declines in the prices of key staples even as other essential items experienced sharp increases, highlighting the volatile dynamics of Nigeria’s food supply chain under ongoing inflationary pressures.

Among the most significant price drops, a 50kg bag of local parboiled rice recorded a sharp 12.96% decline, now selling at an average of ₦53,570, down from ₦61,550 in April.

The price of a 5kg pack of Semovita also eased by 7.75%, now averaging ₦8,625 compared to ₦9,350 in the previous month. Similarly, the cost of frozen horse mackerel (Kote fish) decreased by 14.29% to ₦6,000 per kilogram, driven by improved cold chain logistics and increased imports.

Market analysts attributed these declines to improved regional harvests, reduced hoarding, and a temporary stabilization in transportation costs, thanks to improved fuel supply and logistics.

Despite the easing in some categories, several food items surged in May, driven by seasonal scarcity, supply chain disruptions, and rising transport costs, particularly from the North.

Traders in markets such as Mile 12, Oyingbo, Daleko, and Mushin blamed the sharp increases on off-season shortages, unreliable delivery timelines, and deteriorating road conditions, which impede the smooth transport of perishable goods.

“Even when the price of rice goes down, it doesn’t make much difference because everything else is climbing,” lamented a shopper at Oyingbo Market.

“Last month, ₦5,000 could hardly get me much. Now, I can buy rice and garri and still have change. Things are improving slightly,” said Mrs. Adeola, a shopper at Mile 12 Market.

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According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s food inflation stood at 21.26% in April 2025, a significant decline from 40.53% in April 2024, and slightly lower than 21.79% in March 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation fell to 2.06% in April, from 2.18% in March. The year-on-year drop is largely attributed to a rebasing of the inflation index methodology.

In Lagos State, the food inflation rate moderated to 22.74% in April, down from 24.20% in March, providing a glimmer of hope to households grappling with high living costs. The state recorded a month-on-month food inflation rate of 5.13%, indicating a slight relief in overall food costs.

Despite the downward trend in select staples, overall market sentiment remains cautious. Traders and consumers alike expressed concern over the unpredictable nature of food prices.

“Yes, tomatoes are a bit cheaper now, but you never know what next week will bring,” said Chuks, a food vendor in Mushin.

“We need consistency. Today it drops, tomorrow it goes back up,” noted another shopper at Daleko Market.

While May’s survey offers relief in some segments, analysts warn that prices remain highly vulnerable to seasonal fluctuations, transportation bottlenecks, and broader macroeconomic conditions, including fuel prices and currency stability.

For now, consumers will continue to navigate a volatile market landscape, hoping that sustained policy interventions and improved logistics infrastructure will deliver more consistent price stability in the months ahead.