Lagos guber: Ambode’s possible comeback, Seyi Tinubu’s 2031 plan reshape APC calculations

As the countdown to the 2027 general election begins, political calculations within the Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are becoming increasingly complex, with former governor Akinwunmi Ambode re-emerging as a potential consensus candidate and growing indications that Seyi Tinubu’s much-discussed governorship ambition may be deferred to 2031.

Political observers say the contest is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in Lagos’ recent history, driven by a crowded field of aspirants, shifting power blocs, zoning sentiments and an electorate that is increasingly vocal about governance and inclusion.

Seyi Tinubu, 40, son of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has in recent months been touted by several youth and diaspora groups as a possible contender for the Lagos governorship.

In 2025, endorsements reportedly came from organisations such as the Coalition of Nigerian Youth Leaders, The Future Platform and segments of Nigerian communities abroad, urging him to declare his interest.

However, the endorsements are said to have placed the influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC) in a difficult position, as Seyi Tinubu has neither formally declared his ambition nor received any public endorsement from his father. President Tinubu has also remained silent on the matter.

By 2027, Lagos will require a new governor, as Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.

Behind the scenes, party insiders say APC power brokers are exploring a strategic pathway that would see Ambode return to office to complete a second term, while positioning Seyi Tinubu for a possible run in 2031.

Ambode, who governed Lagos State from 2015 to 2019, famously fell out with Tinubu and key APC leaders ahead of the 2019 election and was denied the party’s ticket, losing the primary to Sanwo-Olu. His removal remains a sore point in some quarters of the party.

According to multiple sources, the GAC is now working quietly to delay Seyi Tinubu’s governorship bid, arguing that such a move would ensure party stability, reduce internal tensions and allow for long-term succession planning.

READ ALSO: Ambode breaks silence:  Reveals why he was removed as Lagos Governor

An APC chieftain in Gbagada, Segun Badejo, told our reporter that Seyi Tinubu was advised earlier to keep a low profile and focus on supporting his father’s political future.

“The party leadership viewed his ambition as a potential distraction to his father’s second-term dream, especially given the growing opposition to the current administration,” Badejo said.

The GAC, a powerful 30-member body established by President Tinubu in 1999, is chaired by Prince Tajudeen Olusi and includes former governors and deputy governors, past speakers of the Lagos State House of Assembly, current and former senators, as well as respected elder statesmen and women.

The council played key roles in the emergence of former governors Bola Tinubu, Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode and incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu.

A political analyst and lecturer at the University of Lagos, Dr. Kamilu Fagbohun, said the reported plan reflects a cautious approach by the APC leadership.

“From a strategic standpoint, postponing Seyi Tinubu’s ambition could reduce accusations of political dynasties and help the party rebuild goodwill after the 2023 setback in Lagos,” he said. “The APC is clearly trying to balance legacy politics with electoral realism.”

Zoning and regional sentiments are also playing a major role. Administratively, Lagos State is divided into five districts—Ikorodu, Badagry, Ikeja, Lagos Island and Epe—collectively known as IBILE.

While Tinubu, Fashola and Sanwo-Olu all hail from Lagos Island and completed two terms each, Ambode, from Epe, was denied a second term, fuelling lingering resentment in the area.

Stakeholders from Epe argue that the zone has been politically marginalised and insist that either Ambode or current Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, should emerge as governor in 2027.

Although Tinubu later compensated the district with Alausa’s ministerial appointments, discontent reportedly remains.

A community leader from Epe, Olumide Balogun, said “We have watched other regions monopolise power. It is time for Epe people to be heard. Either Ambode or Tunji Alausa should be our next governor.”

Another source within the APC attributed the renewed push for Ambode to anger in Epe over how his first term ended. “Many stakeholders still believe Epe was unfairly treated and should be allowed to complete its term,” the source said.

A senior APC stakeholder in Ogba, Ikeja, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the strategy was not intended to sideline Seyi Tinubu.

“The idea is to give him a more stable runway. Nigeria is sensitive to perceptions. Having a sitting president and his son as a governor at the same time could trigger public backlash,” the source said. “Right now, the thinking is that Ambode or Alausa stand a better chance of holding the party together in 2027.”

Political consultant Taiwo Akorede noted that the APC must tread carefully in a state as politically sophisticated as Lagos.

“The party must reconcile zoning demands, elite interests and voter expectations, while projecting a candidate who can win a genuinely competitive election,” he said.

The 2027 field is already crowded, with several heavyweights being mentioned, including Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila; Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa; Senator Tokunbo Abiru; and Abdul-Azeez Adediran, popularly known as Jandor.