Nigeria, Ghana spark MTN Group’s projected profit boom

Africa’s largest telecommunications operator, MTN Group, has projected that its full-year earnings will more than quadruple, driven by a strong rebound in its Nigerian and Ghanaian operations.

In a trading statement released Monday, the Johannesburg-headquartered telco said it expects headline earnings per share (HEPS) of between 10.62 rand and 11.68 rand for the 12 months ended December — marking a sharp turnaround from the loss recorded in the previous financial year.

The group attributed the projected surge to improved operational performance in its most strategic markets, particularly MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana, which together account for more than 40 percent of total group revenue.

“In our larger operations, MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana delivered robust results in their full-year earnings releases,” the company said, highlighting stronger revenue growth and cost discipline as key drivers of the turnaround.

MTN Nigeria returned to profitability in 2025 with a profit after tax of N1.1 trillion, reversing a N400.4 billion loss posted in 2024. The previous year’s loss had been largely attributed to severe foreign exchange (FX) pressures following the sharp depreciation of the naira.

The 2025 performance represents one of the strongest earnings recoveries in the company’s history. In the fourth quarter alone, pre-tax profit surged by 248.8 percent to N569.6 billion, up from N163.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting sustained revenue growth, improved margins, and more stable forex conditions.

Following the rebound, the board proposed a final dividend of N15 per share, bringing the total dividend for the 2025 financial year to N20 per share — a move widely interpreted as a sign of renewed confidence in the company’s cash flow position.

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MTN Ghana also recorded solid gains, posting a 36.2 percent year-on-year rise in service revenue to GHS 24.4 billion.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) climbed 43.5 percent to GHS 14.7 billion, with EBITDA margin expanding by 3 percentage points to 60.1 percent. Profit after tax rose 55.9 percent to GHS 7.8 billion, while earnings per share increased by the same margin to GHS 0.5923.

The company further disclosed that it paid GHS 10.5 billion in direct and indirect taxes, alongside GHS 1.3 billion in regulatory fees and levies — underscoring its fiscal contribution to Ghana’s economy.

Telecommunications analyst Chinedu Okafor said the recovery highlights MTN’s resilience amid macroeconomic volatility.

“The biggest drag on MTN’s earnings in 2024 was forex losses in Nigeria. With relative currency stability and improved pricing power, the business has regained its earnings momentum. Nigeria remains the crown jewel of the group,” he said.

Over the past 12 months, MTN Group’s shares have risen nearly 80 percent, lifting its market capitalization to approximately 381 billion rand, equivalent to $23.7 billion.