Nigerian stock market soars to historic highs under Tinubu

The Nigerian stock market is experiencing a historic bull run under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, marking its most impressive rally since the country’s return to democracy in 1999.

According to data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), the All-Share Index (ASI) has surged by a staggering 136% since Tinubu took office in May 2023—far outpacing gains recorded under any previous civilian administration.

The ASI, which stood at 55,769.28 points on May 29, 2023, has now crossed the 131,000-point threshold, shattering records and setting a new benchmark for investor confidence and capital market growth in Africa’s largest economy.

The market capitalization of listed equities has also soared, rising from around N30 trillion to over N75 trillion—a gain of N45 trillion in just over two years.

This performance eclipses all previous administrations at the same point in office. For comparison:

Under President Muhammadu Buhari, the market had gained only 4.47% by mid-2016.

President Goodluck Jonathan oversaw a 47% increase by June 2013.

President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s early tenure coincided with Nigeria’s worst-ever stock crash, resulting in a 49% market loss.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo held the previous best record, with a 115% gain by July 2001.

Despite significant macroeconomic headwinds—including soaring inflation, a depreciating naira, and widespread cost-of-living challenges—analysts credit the Tinubu administration’s bold economic reforms for igniting investor optimism and driving market growth.

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Key among these reforms are the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification of foreign exchange windows, and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ambitious bank recapitalization programme.

These moves, though painful for the average Nigerian, have been widely welcomed by global financial institutions and investors who view them as essential to restoring fiscal balance and improving capital inflows.

The CBN’s recapitalization push alone is expected to raise over ₦5 trillion by 2026, significantly boosting the valuation of listed banks and strengthening the financial sector.

This, coupled with tighter monetary policy—highlighted by a 27.5% Monetary Policy Rate (MPR)—has redirected liquidity into high-yield financial assets, including equities and fixed income.

An uptick in corporate earnings despite economic strain has also played a pivotal role. Many listed companies have reported strong revenue growth, leveraging pricing power and strategic cost management amid inflationary pressures.

One of the defining features of this rally is the dominance of local institutional and retail investors. In the first quarter of 2025, domestic transactions on the NGX amounted to N1.418 trillion, representing 63.63% of total transactions worth N2.23 trillion.

Between May 2023 and May 2025, domestic investors were responsible for N9.375 trillion in equity trading—81% of the total N11.535 trillion transaction value.

In contrast, foreign participation stood at N2.159 trillion, reflecting a cautious return of foreign portfolio investors.

This trend underscores growing domestic confidence in the capital market, buoyed by limited alternative investment vehicles, excess system liquidity, and attractive yields.

The banking sector has emerged as a major winner, adding over N7 trillion in market capitalization. Leading the charge are GTCO (N2 trillion increase) and Zenith Bank (N1.7 trillion), both of which have benefitted from strong balance sheets and investor appetite.

The ICT sector has also seen explosive growth, with MTN Nigeria adding more than N3 trillion in value, and Airtel Africa gaining approximately N1.8 trillion. In the industrials and oil & gas segments, firms like Aradel Holdings have contributed significantly to market expansion, with Aradel alone adding over N2 trillion in value since its listing.

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Despite the record-breaking performance of the NGX, the average Nigerian has yet to feel the benefits. Inflation remains stubbornly high, unemployment persists, and household purchasing power continues to erode.

Economists warn that while stock market gains are a positive signal for investor confidence and long-term growth, they do not directly reflect improvements in living standards.

The real test of the Tinubu administration, they argue, lies in its ability to translate macro-level gains into tangible benefits for ordinary citizens—through job creation, affordable housing, education, healthcare, and food security.