Nigeria’s GDP hits N372.8trn, services, agriculture sectors lead

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at N372.8 trillion in 2024, following a major revision by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which has updated the base year for GDP calculation from 2010 to 2019.

The revision marks a structural shift in the Nigerian economy, with a higher contribution from the services and agriculture sectors, and a notable decline in the weight of the industrial sector.

The rebased figures were released on Monday in a comprehensive report titled “Rebasing of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)”, in which the NBS said the recalculations were necessary to reflect the changing dynamics of the economy, improve data accuracy, and better align with international statistical standards.

“In nominal terms, the rebased GDP for 2019 stood at ₦205.09 trillion and rose steadily to ₦372.82 trillion in 2024,” the NBS report stated.

Nominal GDP Sees 41.7% Upward Revision

According to the NBS, the new methodology resulted in a 41.7% increase in the 2019 nominal GDP figures compared to estimates based on the 2010 base year.

This revision is lower than the 59.7% jump recorded during the last rebasing exercise in 2014, which adopted 2010 as the new base year at the time.

The nominal GDP figures under the 2019 base year are as follows: 2019: ₦205.09 trillion; 2020: ₦213.63 trillion; 2021: ₦243.30 trillion; 2022: ₦274.23 trillion; 2023: ₦314.02 trillion and 2024: ₦372.82 trillion.

The percentage increase in nominal GDP compared to old base year figures ranged from 34.6% to 41.7% over the six-year period, reflecting the significant changes in sectoral coverage and data sources.

Real GDP Growth Recalibrated

The rebasing exercise also recalibrated Nigeria’s real GDP growth rates: 2020: -6.96% (reflecting the deep economic impact of COVID-19); 2021: 0.95%; 2022: 4.32%; 2023: 3.04% and 2024: 3.38%

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These figures suggest a more nuanced post-pandemic recovery trajectory, with moderate growth returning in recent years.

Sectoral Dynamics Shift

One of the most striking outcomes of the rebasing is the reshuffling of sectoral contributions to the GDP. According to the updated 2019 nominal figures: Agriculture’s share rose from 22.12% (old base) to 25.83%; Industry’s share fell from 27.65% to 21.08% and Services’ share increased from 50.22% to 53.09%

This structural shift suggests a growing dominance of the services sector, continued resilience in agriculture, and a relative decline in industrial activity—including crude oil production, traditionally one of Nigeria’s most dominant sectors.

In 2020, during the pandemic, agriculture emerged as the most resilient sector, growing at 2.66%, while the industrial sector contracted by a steep 22.72% and services by 5.37%. By 2024, the services sector had recovered strongly with a 4.43% growth rate, followed by industry at 2.80% and agriculture at 1.69%.

Real Estate Surpasses Oil in Economic Ranking

A significant reclassification occurred in the ranking of GDP-contributing sectors. Real estate—previously underreported due to limited coverage of informal transactions—now ranks third, overtaking crude oil and natural gas, which dropped to the fifth position.

The top five GDP contributors in 2019 under the new base year are: Crop production – 17.58%; Trade – 17.42%; Real estate – 10.78%; Telecommunications – 6.78% and Crude petroleum and natural gas – 5.85%

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This contrasts with the previous rankings where oil and gas held the third spot, highlighting how improved data collection, particularly on informal activity, has reshaped perceptions of Nigeria’s economic makeup.

Informal Sector’s Contribution Rises

The contribution of the informal sector to Nigeria’s GDP also increased slightly—from 41.4% to 42.5%—underscoring its enduring significance in the national economy, despite efforts at formalization.

Economists and analysts view the rebasing as a necessary and overdue update that provides a more accurate representation of Nigeria’s economic size and structure, aiding better fiscal planning, investment decisions, and international comparisons.

However, they caution that while the upward revision may improve Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators on paper—such as debt-to-GDP ratios—it does not automatically translate to improved living standards, job creation, or poverty reduction.