Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Amaechi in front-line one term bargaining, as North lures Jonathan for president 2027

Incumbent President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, are in the front-line of one term bargaining,  as the North lures former President Goodluck Jonathan for president 2027. Northern elite are currently making overtures to former President Jonathan to contest the 2027 presidential election as a seemingly preferred candidate to the incumbent president.

President Bola Tinubu gearing for second term amidst rising opposition

Incumbent President Tinubu, in the second year of his first tenure of four years; still has two years to round up. The incumbent President is gearing for second tenure amidst rising oppositions, in the irony of monumental politicking for 2027 presidential election without regulatory directive by the INEC.

North clamour for return of former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2027

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar was the first to propose or bargain for one term in office in the 2023 general elections. Atiku sustained his one term proposal in the build up to 2027.

Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi joined the one term horse trading as it became a political currency for northern support in 2027.

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The one term horse trading has become phenomenal towards 2027 in the sustenance of the elite agreement on power rotation and zoning of the president between the North and the South. The current tenure of the South on the zoning and power rotation arrangement would end in 2031, when the zone would have completed two terms of eight years.

Late President Muhammadu Buhari held northern tenure from 2015 to 2023 on the platform of the APC.

Paradoxically, Atiku’s one term proposal in 2023 did not scale through because he represents the North, and his presidential candidacy hypothetically, considered obstructive to the zoning and power rotation agreement among the political elite. The same phenomenon is playing out against the former vice president as he aspires for the 2027 presidential ticket of the emergent opposition coalition party.

former Vice President Atiku Abubakar lurks in-between zoning and power rotation agreement

Meanwhile, several northern stakeholders have been clamouring that former President Goodluck Jonathan join the 2027 presidential race, promising to mobilise massive support from the North.

The northern stakeholders cited Jonathan’s development projects in the North when he was president 2010 to 2015 as their basis of confidence building.

Secondly, northern leaders have also developed trust, reinforcing their confidence in the former president, reflecting on his willingly relinquishing of power after losing the 2015 election while in office. Moreover, Jonathan would licitly have one tenure to be in office if he emerges president in the 2027 elections, just like incumbent President Tinubu; and there would be no need for further negotiations.

Peter Obi had also postulated that he may voluntarily not be eligible to contest for the president after 2027; citing that in the subsequent presidential election after 2027, he would be over 80 years and cannot contest for president at such age. This confines Obi to the one term horse trading which aligns with the political interest of northern elite in the current circumstance.

Peter Obi developing rising populism profile across the country

There are indications that northern leaders may not trust Peter Obi to limit himself to one term in office. They fear the temptation of powers of incumbency and the federal might often deployed by incumbents, exception of Jonathan, to manipulate the electoral processes, and perpetuate themselves in office for second tenures.

However, Obi has developed reputation for integrity, and has reassured all stakeholders that he would abide by his words, maintaining that one term is sufficient for a leader deliver good governance.

Rotimi Amaechi, former Minister of Transportation in the Buhari administration, has also promised to serve for one term in office. Meanwhile, his political credential could be the determinant factor in persuading other stakeholders to support him.

Several stakeholders are of the view that the probable entrance of former President Jonathan into the 2027 presidential race may reconfigure the political alliances, alignments and coalitions in the country. The stakeholders perceive Jonathan’s candidacy as strong force against incumbent President Tinubu, essentially, in dividing southern loyalty and support.

Rotimi Amaechi strengthening the opposition forte

The former President is conceived as the strongest southern presidential candidate that can challenge incumbent President Tinubu, in the quest to wrest power from the APC in 2027.

Meanwhile, Peter Obi has been developing unprecedented populism across the country with army of non-partisan loyalists that catalyses into Obidient Movement. Obi’s greatest political asset is in the Obidient Movement, as well as his profound knowledge of the leadership crisis in Nigeria and the solutions to bad governance.

Atiku’s major setback is the zoning and power rotation elite agreement.

Tinubu has the incumbency powers and all the perquisite of office at his behest.

The North is religiously holding on to the zoning and power rotation agreement and seems not to be in hurry to obstruct the process. The northern elite, therefore, sustain alliance with a southern candidate in 2027, those in government aligning with Tinubu, others forming new coalitions, while a few still remain with the cracking Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).