The two cardinal policies of the Tinubu administration – fuel subsidy removal and currency liberalization – have literally overturned the fragile economy. Inflation is through the roof. Living costs are insane. In less than 18 months, what used to look like the semblance of a middle class has been wiped off. An atmosphere of insecurity that first fed on hardship and poverty has been aggravated by worsening hardship. Hunger has joined general poverty to expand the confines of hell.
The current mood of the nation is defined by a question mark. Most people are not quite sure where the Tinubu presidency is leading us. You hear it in the market place, at airport lounges, on the streets and in boardrooms. At first there was an optimism founded on the newness of the tenure. After all an election had taken place and expectations were high that the new thing would yield new beginnings and imbue new hope. The new administration even borrowed a name and a slogan from the prevailing air. Tinubu and his acolytes called their agenda: “Renewed Hope”!
These days, the name tag is won mostly by minions on the corridors of Aso Villa and straggling jobless party men and women who cannot find a better job out there. Everywhere else, the mood is bleak. The cult of optimists is dwindling. Those who feel that the Tinubu presidency will yield some smiles are getting fewer or going into hiding. Regime economists are falling back to the conditionalities economists usually attach to: “all things being equal”, knowing that in the real world of economic utopia, all things can never be equal.
Only some global economists lead the chorus of optimists about Nigeria’s prospects. The World Bank knows that election cycles and four year terms define our policy environment. They are saying Nigeria’s current reforms will yield positive results if sustained for long enough. In fact, the Bank has determined that Nigeria needs to sustain the Tinubu reforms for upwards of fifteen years to see results! No one knows where Tinubu would be in fifteen years’ time.
We only know that even with the best of electoral fortunes, there would be no Tinubu administration in fifteen years. And for certain, whatever administrations succeed Tinubu would look back at the man and his baggage as bad history or just not want to touch him with a long pole.
Nigerian political animals that support Tinubu nonetheless are less definitive than the World Bank or the Central Bank of Nigeria. Of course the apostolic certainty of the Central Bank is founded on matters of job security and tenure assurance. So no one should blame the CBN for being the most optimistic apostles of Tinubu’s reforms.
Nigerian political believers in the Tinubu reform are being politically correct. Their nuances are diverse. Tinubu needs time to deliver. Less than two years is nothing in the life of an administration. There is still time. The man needs more time to deliver. Give the man a break….
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Tinubu’s foreign affairs minister, Mr. Tuggar has appealed for patience from Nigerians, insisting that Tinubu would deliver. He falls back to the usual lazy self-assurance that Nigeria is after all not alone in passing through hard times in today’s world. He even attributes current hardships to past policy missteps ranging from the 2008 global financial crisis and Nigeria’s failure to invest in more refineries to the 2020 Covid-19 emergency.
Vice President Shettima has been understandably vociferous in defending his administration’s policies and of course urging hope in the prospects of current policies. Mr. Shettima insists he is aware of the hardship all over the country but says that there are no alternatives to the draconian policies if the nation must return to the ‘path of growth’. He does not of course go beyond platitudes to identify the indices of the growth that his administration’s policies are aiming at returning us to.
Closer home, the sound bytes are a bit more realistic. Mrs. Remi Tinubu is First Lady and a politician. She is nearest the temple. She has protested aloud that the problems of our current hardship were not caused by her husband. The problems have always been there. Her husband only came to help alleviate a bad situation. And he is doing it as a patriotic duty, not for financial returns. She has repeatedly reminded us all that her family has always been a wealthy family, not needing to fiddle with the national till.
There has been a more overtly political appeal for understanding on the Tinubu plight and the clear and present possibility that it could fail. My very good and respected friend, former Ogun State governor, Chief Olusegun Osoba, is not a frivolous man. He is a serious political voice whose views weigh heavily in the nation and in the South West in particular. Chief Osoba recently vowed that South West politicians will defend and protect the Tinubu presidency through two four-year terms as a Yoruba son.
Tinubu is first and foremost a Yoruba president deployed to serve Nigeria. Osoba is not so concerned about Tinubu’s competence, effectiveness or policy relevance. For him, the equation is simple. Tinubu is a Yoruba son at the helm of national power. He must be supported to succeed. He has to be a successful Yoruba president even if he turns out a woeful national leader. This is perhaps the closest we get to a tacit admission and hint that the Tinubu presidency might fail as a national institution.
Other South West leaders like Obasanjo and Bode George have found alternative dialects for communicating the looming Tinubu disaster. Obasanjo has opted for silence and generalizations and a bit of symbolism. Earlier, he had donned the Tinubu trade mark cap and innocuously visited Tinubu under the First Lady’s escort. Thereafter, he went silent on criticism of Tinubu’s policies. Mr. Bode George is in a class of his own. At some point, he was an arch PDP stalwart. At other times, he was full of bile for Tinubu and the APC. At other times, he harbours some hope in Tinubu and his presidency.
What runs through all these conflicting hints of trouble at the altar of the Tinubu presidency is a worrisome admission that the optimism that greeted the onset of the administration may be heading to a bad place. The two cardinal policies of the administration – fuel subsidy removal and currency liberalization – have literally overturned the fragile economy. Inflation is through the roof. Living costs are insane. In less than 18 months, what used to look like the semblance of a middle class has been wiped off. An atmosphere of insecurity that first fed on hardship and poverty has been aggravated by worsening hardship. Hunger has joined general poverty to expand the confines of hell.
Let us not make any mistakes about where this administration has landed us. It has set precedents in our national economic history. We have the highest rate of inflation at over 33%. We have the worst exchange rate in history at over N1,700 to a dollar. We now rank as one of the worst performing currencies in the world. We have the highest percentage of poor population in excess of 78 million. We now have the highest electricity tariff in our history. Our streets and highways are at their most frightful in history as we inhabit one of the half dozen most dangerous countries in the world.
The clear question that haunts the nation is a simple one: Can the policy thrust of the Tinubu presidency produce a positive reversal of its corrosive effects? In other words, can we witness a reversal of the bad exchange rate? Will we return to an era of more affordable gasoline at the pumps? Will food affordability replace the present virtual famine? Will things get better or worse still?
There is an even larger question: has this administration’s tinkering with policy and a rudderless governance style plunged the nation into an even deeper ditch than it was in May, 2023? And why?
Judgments and verdicts on the Tinubu presidency are wrong headed in my view. We cannot judge what we do not know or cannot characterize. No one has as yet told us what this presidency was all about in the first place. What were the policy objectives of the administration? What kind of society did the new administration aim at? What vision has fuelled Tinubu’s long term political hunger and aspiration?
It is important to raise these basic questions in order to understand what vision Tinubu shared with his team at inception and on the basis of which he can possibly evaluate their performance. In terms of style, values, goals, performance targets and national character, what kind of nation did Tinubu aim at? The remarkable leader is that one who wakes up his nation and takes it along an unfamiliar road to that place where they have never been before but have been longing to go. Even in modern democracies with well-established presidential or parliamentary traditions, successive leaders come to power with the aim of re-creating the nation along definable lines.
Is Tinubu a visionary leader? In other words, has his political career been in pursuit of a vision of Nigeria that is yet unachieved? Is Tinubu a restorative leader? In other words, does he aim at recreating a glorious chapter of the Nigerian past and make it his? Is he, for instance, obsessed with the idea of nationalizing the Awo legacy and making it a Nigerian template? Is Tinubu a transformational leader? In other words, has he set out to transform Nigeria from static primordiality into bubbling modernity? Does he aim to change our ways and bring the nation up to the modern ways of nations of our age, and resource status?
A traveller who does not know where he set out to go cannot be accused of getting to nowhere!
