Why Dapo Abiodun may suffer same fate like Oyetola in 2023

Following the defeat of Gboyega Oyetola, the incumbent governor of Osun state and candidate for the All Progressives Congress, on Saturday to Demola Adeleke, the candidate for the Peoples Democratic Party, Nigerians have singled out Dapo Abiodun of Ogun state as the next APC governor that may lose his seat to the opposition.

A close study of political events in the gateway state shows that this prediction may just come true as he was also imposed on the people.

Until the political stage was set ahead of the 2019 general election, Dapo Abiodun was not a name that could independently win a governorship election in Ogun State.

He ran for the APC in the 2015 Ogun East senatorial race but was defeated by the late Senator Buruji Kashamu. Abiodun said that he and previous governor Ibikunle Amosun had an unwritten arrangement that if he lost the election, he would receive a ministry position as restitution.

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However, he claimed that he was left out in the cold as his party enjoyed the benefits of its electoral triumph in 2015. “…thereafter, Amosun assured me that I won’t need to worry about becoming the minister from Ogun State. Later, it became evident that he had only said so to get rid of me, Abiodun recounted in a media interview from 2018.

Forward to the 2019 political scene, the former governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomole, who was then the APC National Chairman, was on a crusade to reform the party, the kind of reform that challenged the overreaching powers of state governors.

Oshiomole became a nightmare to the APC governors when he introduced the direct mode of primary election. Former governor Akinwunmi Ambode was disgraced out of the Lagos gubernatorial race, while governors like Amosun were so powerless they could not successfully anoint candidates in their states. Little wonder the governors joined forces together to execute a political coup against the former Edo governor.

Abiodun spoke with influential party figures Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Oshiomole, and vice president Yemi Osinbajo, who is also from Ogun East. Abiodun was chosen as the governorship candidate over Abdulkabir Akinlade, who was preferred by Amosun, with the blessing of Chief Olusegun Osoba.

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While Aregbesola’s preferred candidate took the humble pie and supported Oyetola, the choice of their godfather, in 2018, Akinlade, Amosun’s anointed candidate moved to a new party and slugged it out with Abiodun.

It was a tightly contested race even with the political artillery of the ruling party deployed for Abiodun. Akinlade has now joined the PDP and will be on the ballot in 2023 as a deputy governorship candidate. Like it played out in Osun, Amosun is not likely to support Abiodun’s re-election, and his loyalists, who are still aggrieved, would support the governorship candidate of the PDP, Oladipupo Adebutu. This would be a nightmare for Abiodun, and portends defeat for the incumbent in Ogun.

The Yewa people of Ogun West Senatorial District have never produced a governor in Ogun state. Every election year, they cry of marginalization with the now popular slogan of “Emi lokan”.

This slogan was not alien to them, even before the APC Presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu took it to the national stage of political discourse. It used to be “Yewa lokan” – “it is time for the Yewa people to govern”, but they never got a chance in the 44 years of the state’s existence. They came close in 2019 when Amosun anointed their son, but the powers that be in APC – Tinubu, Osoba, Oshiomhole, and Osinbajo – insisted that it was not Yewa’s turn.

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Although they still will not get a chance in 2023, their son, Akinlade is now running mate to Adebutu of the PDP, who is also from Ogun East as Governor Abiodun.

With the two major parties fielding candidates from the same senatorial district, the votes in Ogun East will be largely divided, even though Abiodun may have an upper hand.

However, the people of Ogun West are likely to support the PDP candidate; while Amosun may silently frustrate things for the incumbent governor in his Ogun Central district, just like Aregbesola was suspected to have done in Osun.

Although in Ogun West, Abiodun will be relying on politicians like Olamilekan Adeoti (Yayi), the Lagos West Senator who will be contesting the Ogun West senatorial election.