Tinubu hails economic gains, security reforms as experts caution on long-term impact

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has marked the halfway point of his administration with a comprehensive address outlining economic achievements, security improvements, and sweeping reforms across sectors.

Speaking during a midterm review broadcast on Democracy Day, Tinubu asserted that his government has laid a strong foundation for national renewal amid significant fiscal and socio-political headwinds.

In a detailed speech delivered from the Presidential Villa, Tinubu declared that Nigeria’s external reserves had soared from $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion by the end of 2024, a nearly 500% increase he attributed to reforms targeting fiscal discipline, oil sector transparency, and the removal of fuel subsidies.

“Two years ago, you entrusted me with the sacred responsibility to lead our nation at a time of historic challenges. Together, we have faced these headwinds with courage and determination,” Tinubu said, reaffirming his commitment to restoring economic stability and national unity.

Tinubu highlighted the abolition of fuel subsidies and unification of the foreign exchange market as critical early reforms.

“These policies were necessary to prevent Nigeria from slipping into fiscal crisis,” he said, pointing to gains such as a narrowed fiscal deficit (from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024) and a reduction in the debt service-to-revenue ratio from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% in 2024.

The President also reported a 13.5% tax-to-GDP ratio, up from 10% in 2023, attributing the improvement to deliberate tax reforms and efficient administration.

Dr. Ayo Teriba, an economist and CEO of Economic Associates, commended the reserve buildup and revenue growth but cautioned: “The sustainability of these numbers will depend on consistent production in the oil sector, exchange rate stability, and curbing inflation. The economy is on a better path, but resilience must now be institutionalised.”

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Dr. Zainab Musa, a development finance expert at the University of Lagos, agreed that revenue expansion was impressive but noted the “social costs.”

“Inflation, though easing, remains high. Food prices, energy costs, and transport have increased the burden on vulnerable households. Reform gains must now translate to better living standards.”

On security, Tinubu praised the Nigerian military for reclaiming bandit-held territories in the North-West and restoring order along key highways.

“Our armed forces have restored order in areas previously controlled by bandits. Farmers are back on the land, and the highways are safer,” he stated.

Dr. Kabiru Adamu, a security risk expert, confirmed improvements: “There’s been visible progress in the North-West and North-Central. Intelligence-led operations and inter-agency cooperation have improved, but sustained funding and local engagement are crucial to maintaining peace.”

Tinubu spotlighted investments in education and health, including the revitalisation of 1,000 Primary Health Centres (PHCs), student loan schemes, and improved health insurance coverage (from 16 million to 20 million people in two years).

Additionally, he announced VAT exemptions on essentials such as food, rent, education, healthcare, and renewable energy.

Professor Ndidi Okereke, a public health policy analyst, said the government had made “commendable strides” in PHC revitalisation and maternal care.

“Expanding access and funding is essential. The pilot free dialysis program and cesarean initiative are a step in the right direction, but sustaining them beyond headlines is key.”

Tinubu reiterated his administration’s commitment to infrastructure renewal, citing progress on major roads, electricity transmission upgrades, and the introduction of solar energy projects.

He also lauded NASENI’s innovations in electric vehicle assembly and local industrial production.

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“This is the movement we promised—a government of action powered by the energy and innovation of young Nigerians,” he declared.

The president announced the forthcoming Motherland Festival, a global celebration of Nigeria’s cultural and creative wealth, aimed at boosting tourism and global engagement.

He also highlighted diaspora engagement policies, including the non-resident BVN and diaspora bond initiative.

“The Nigerian Diaspora is vital to our national transformation,” Tinubu said. “Their investment and expertise are shaping the future we seek.”

Despite the optimistic tone, experts called for measured expectations.

Dr. Tunde Bakare, a political analyst and governance consultant, said:

“This was a presidential address designed to boost morale, and rightly so. But Nigeria’s real test lies in translating these reforms into enduring structural change. The next two years must focus on deepening governance, addressing inequality, and ensuring inclusive growth.”