Inside Opay’s silent takeover– And the risks if it ever goes dark

Opay rise has been so swift and so deep that experts now warn: if OPay were to go offline — even for 24 hours — Nigeria’s economy would feel an immediate and severe shock, Odunewu Segun writes

OPay, a foreign-owned fintech licensed as a Mobile Money Operator (MMO), has quietly reshaped Nigeria’s financial landscape, achieving what no traditional bank has in decades.

The platform now processes more daily transactions than all Tier-1 banks combined, reaching millions of Nigerians in their everyday commerce.

Experts warn that while OPay’s growth is impressive, its dominance poses systemic risks should it suddenly face operational failure, regulatory action, or exit from the market.

Yet, OPay is not a bank. It is a foreign-owned fintech licensed as a Mobile Money Operator (MMO), not a deposit-taking commercial bank — and experts say that distinction matters now more than ever.

This investigative report explores how OPay built this dominance, why it succeeded where banks failed, and what Nigeria stands to lose if the company faces a major failure, regulatory freeze, or sudden exit from the market.

Founded in 2018 with backing from Chinese investors including Opera and Softbank, OPay entered a fragmented fintech market with a simple mission: serve the people traditional banks were ignoring.

With over 400,000 agents deployed across markets, motor parks, rural areas, and low-income neighbourhoods, OPay became a banking alternative for millions.

“OPay understood early that financial inclusion must be human-powered,” says fintech consultant Tobi Alade.

“Their agents became the banks for millions who have never entered a banking hall.”

OPay’s app is optimised for low-end Android devices and low connectivity, making it accessible to students, market traders, small business owners, and transport operators.

The platform thrives on frequent, low-value transactions — N200 airtime purchases, N500 transfers, POS payments, and bill settlements.

Dr. Chioma Umeh, digital economist, explains: “OPay cracked the code of nano-transactions. They captured the bottom 80% of the market while banks chased the top 20 per cent.”

Despite its ubiquity, OPay’s status as a non-bank raises significant concerns. Nigeria now depends on a foreign-owned platform for a large portion of its daily financial activity.

Ismail Adeyemi, financial systems risk analyst, warns: “When a fintech processes more transactions than every traditional bank combined, it becomes a systemic institution — whether regulators admit it or not.”

OPay cannot legally hold deposits; funds are held in partner banks, but many users do not understand this distinction. A cyberattack, liquidity crunch, fraud, or regulatory suspension could trigger panic, with millions blaming the Central Bank.

Majority Chinese ownership amplifies strategic and geopolitical risks. Some analysts liken OPay’s dominance to a foreign entity controlling the national power grid.

Dr. Kehinde Ogundele, lecturer in financial governance, says: “When a foreign-owned operator controls the rails of daily financial activity, the host country must think strategically, not romantically.”

Although OPay outpaces banks in transaction volume and customer reach, traditional banks remain more profitable due to corporate banking, treasury operations, FX gains, and high-interest government securities. Yet in terms of frequency, accessibility, and trust among the unbanked, OPay leads decisively.

Today, its numbers tell a staggering story:50 million registered users — one in every four Nigerians; 10 million daily active users; N9 trillion in monthly transaction volume N230 billion per day; N9.6 billion per hour; N159 million per minute; N2.6 million every second

Not even Zenith Bank, Access Bank, or GTBank — despite their size — come close to this scale of daily transaction activity.

“OPay understood early that financial inclusion must be human-powered,” says Alade, who has tracked agent networks for years.

“Their agents became the banks for millions of people who have never entered a banking hall.”

With banks closing branches and limiting ATM availability, OPay filled the vacuum.

Traditional banking apps are heavy, slow, and require stable data connections. OPay designed its app to function quickly, even on low-end Android devices.

This made the platform extremely attractive to: Okada riders; Market women; Small business owners; Students and youth; First-time smartphone users.

“OPay cracked the code of nano-transactions,” explains digital economist Dr. Chioma Umeh. “They captured the bottom 80% of the market while banks chased the top 20%.”

The Hidden Risks: What Happens If OPay Collapses Today?

Nigeria now relies on a foreign-owned fintech for a massive portion of its daily economic activity.

“When a fintech processes more transactions than every traditional bank combined, it becomes a systemic institution whether regulators admit it or not,” warns financial systems risk analyst Ismail Adeyemi.

Nigeria’s payment ecosystem has never depended so heavily on a single private operator — let alone one without a full banking license.

Foreign Ownership Raises Strategic Concerns

OPay is majority foreign-owned, with significant Chinese investment. This prompts questions:

Some analysts compare OPay’s dominance to allowing a foreign company to run Nigeria’s national grid.

“When a foreign-owned operator controls the rails of daily financial activity, the host country must think strategically, not romantically,” says Dr. Kehinde Ogundele, lecturer in financial governance.

It cannot hold deposits the way banks do — funds are technically held in partner banks — but users do not understand this distinction.

If OPay experiences: A liquidity issue; A cyber attack; Fraud; A regulatory shutdown millions may blame the Central Bank, not realizing their money is technically safeguarded elsewhere.

Despite OPay processing more daily transactions than GTBank, Zenith, Access, UBA, and Fidelity combined, the major banks still earn far more profit due to: Corporate banking; FX revenues; Treasury operations; High-interest government securities; But in terms of reach, frequency of use, and customer loyalty, OPay wins.

OPay’s rise shows what is possible when technology meets unmet need. But it also exposes structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s financial governance framework.

Nigeria must confront three urgent realities: OPay is now a systemically important financial institution — even without a banking license.

The country depends on a foreign-owned platform for low-income financial activity.

If OPay collapses today, millions of Nigerians will feel the shock instantly.

The Central Bank faces a choice: Bring OPay under stricter regulatory oversight, or risk a future in which Nigeria’s most widely used financial institution is also its most vulnerable.

Either way, OPay’s story is a warning: The future of banking may already be here — and it didn’t come from a bank.