2027: The Atiku, Obi defection and what it means for Nigerian democracy

In a political earthquake that could reshape Nigeria’s 2027 presidential race, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s 2023 flagbearer Peter Obi have both defected to the African Democratic Congress, abandoning their respective parties in what analysts describe as an unprecedented opposition realignment.

The dual defection, confirmed by sources close to both politicians, marks the most significant political development since the 2023 general elections. However, the move has immediately raised troubling questions about whether two alpha politicians, both insisting on the top job, can coexist under one party banner.

Major Opposition Figures Abandon Former Parties

Atiku, 77, who has contested for the presidency six times and served as the Peoples Democratic Party’s standard-bearer in the last three election cycles, cited irreconcilable differences within the PDP as the reason for his departure. Party insiders say the former Vice President grew increasingly frustrated with the PDP’s inability to resolve internal conflicts, particularly the rift caused by former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike’s decision to back Tinubu in 2023 and subsequently accept a ministerial appointment.

“The PDP has lost its way,” a source close to Atiku told reporters on condition of anonymity. “He believes the party is no longer capable of providing the platform needed to rescue Nigeria from its current economic crisis.”

Obi’s exit from the Labour Party, while less surprising given the party’s organizational struggles, nonetheless deals a devastating blow to the platform that rode a wave of youth enthusiasm in 2023. The 63-year-old former Anambra governor reportedly concluded that the LP lacks the nationwide structure necessary to mount a credible presidential campaign.

The ADC, founded in 2006 and previously considered a minor party, now finds itself catapulted into the center of opposition politics with two of Nigeria’s most recognizable political figures.

The Collision Course: Two Presidents, One Party

The elephant in the room is impossible to ignore: both Atiku and Obi have made it abundantly clear they will only accept the presidential slot.

Obi has stated on multiple occasions, including in interviews and town hall meetings, that he will not settle for a vice-presidential position. “I’ve been Vice President material before,” Obi said in a September 2024 interview with Arise Television. “What Nigeria needs now is not VP material, but presidential material. I am running for president, not running mate.”

Similarly, Atiku who served as Vice President for eight years under Olusegun Obasanjo, has signaled he is done playing second fiddle. At 77, sources close to the former VP say this is likely his final shot at the presidency, and he has no intention of stepping aside.

“Atiku believes his experience, political machinery, and national reach make him the obvious candidate,” says a former PDP National Working Committee member who requested anonymity. “He’s not moving to ADC to be anyone’s deputy.”

This sets up an inevitable clash within the ADC that could undermine the entire purpose of the defection.

A Marriage of Convenience or Recipe for Disaster?

Political analysts are divided on what the dual defection really means.

Dr. Chidi Odinkalu, a political analyst, describes it as “a marriage of convenience between two people who haven’t agreed on the wedding vows.”

“On paper, combining Atiku’s extensive political network in the North with Obi’s appeal to young voters and the middle class looks formidable,” Odinkalu says. “But in practice, how do you unite two presidential aspirants who have both publicly ruled out the VP slot? The math doesn’t add up.”

The 2023 campaign revealed deep animosity between the two camps. Atiku’s supporters accused Obi of splitting the vote and handing victory to Tinubu, while Obi’s followers dismissed Atiku as part of the old political establishment they were fighting against. Social media battles between the “Atikulated” and “Obidient” movements were often vicious.

Prof. Abubakar Momoh, a political scientist at Lagos State University, is even more blunt: “This looks like two presidential candidates looking for a party platform, not two politicians building a coalition. Unless one of them is lying about their ambitions, this ends in one of three ways: a messy primary, a split, or one person leaving for another party.”

What ADC Says and Doesn’t Say

ADC National Chairman Ralph Nwosu has been carefully diplomatic about the dual defection. In a statement released Monday, he welcomed “all Nigerians committed to rescuing our country from its current challenges” but conspicuously avoided addressing how the party would handle two heavyweight presidential aspirants.

When pressed by journalists on whether the party would hold primaries or broker a consensus, Nwosu said only that “due process will be followed at the appropriate time.”

Party insiders, speaking on background, paint a picture of an organization scrambling to manage a situation it didn’t fully anticipate.

“We thought we were getting one big name, maybe two,” says an ADC National Executive Committee member. “Now we have two presidents-in-waiting who both want the same thing. The party doesn’t have the capacity to manage egos of this magnitude.”

Some within ADC are pushing for an open primary, believing that a competitive contest would energize the party and attract media attention. Others fear that a bruising primary would simply recreate the divisions of 2023 and leave the eventual loser bitter and uncooperative.

Three Possible Outcomes

Political observers are watching for three scenarios:

Scenario One: The Contested Primary ADC holds an open primary where Atiku and Obi compete directly. One wins, the other loses and either accepts a VP slot (breaking their public vow) or leaves the party. This scenario risks recreating 2023’s opposition fragmentation.

Scenario Two: The Gentleman’s Agreement Behind closed doors, one candidate agrees to step aside in exchange for significant influence over party direction, key appointments, or support for a future political ambition. Given both men’s public statements, this seems unlikely unless circumstances change dramatically.

Scenario Three: The Managed Split One candidate quietly exits ADC for another platform before primaries, with both sides maintaining the fiction that it was a mutual decision. This could happen if either Atiku or Obi concludes that sharing a party is untenable but wants to avoid the appearance of being forced out.

“Right now, I’d bet on Scenario Three,” says political risk analyst Aisha Osori. “Neither of these men built their careers by backing down. Something has to give, and it’s unlikely to be their presidential ambitions.”

PDP and Labour Party in Crisis

The defections leave both parties in existential crisis, though party officials are putting on brave faces.

PDP National Publicity Secretary Debo Ologunagba downplayed the development in a statement released Sunday, saying “the party remains strong and united.” However, party insiders privately acknowledge that losing Atiku—and his substantial financial resources—severely diminishes their 2027 prospects.

Governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi are being mentioned as potential flagbearers, though neither commands Atiku’s national profile or fundraising ability. Some PDP leaders are privately hoping Atiku’s ADC experiment fails, allowing him to return “home.”

The Labour Party faces an even bleaker outlook. Party chairman Julius Abure insisted in a press conference Monday that the LP “is bigger than any individual,” but political observers note that the party’s 2023 success was almost entirely personality-driven.

“Without Obi, the Labour Party is back to being a fringe party with little structure outside major urban centers,” says Jibrin Ibrahim of the Centre for Democracy and Development. “They had one moment of relevance, and it’s now walking out the door.”

APC: Watching and Waiting

The ruling All Progressives Congress has publicly dismissed the defections as “political desperation,” but party insiders acknowledge that a truly united opposition would pose a serious threat.

Speaking to journalists in Abuja, APC National Publicity Secretary Felix Morka said, “Nigerians have seen through the antics of these serial contestants. No amount of party-hopping will change the fact that President Tinubu is delivering on his promises.”

However, with inflation above 30%, persistent fuel scarcity despite subsidy removal, and widespread economic hardship, the APC faces a challenging re-election environment. The question is whether the opposition can get its house in order to capitalize on the government’s vulnerabilities.

Some APC strategists are reportedly delighted by the Atiku-Obi situation, believing that two strong-willed presidential aspirants in one party guarantees opposition division.

“Let them fight it out in ADC,” says a Presidency source. “By the time they’re done with their primary, they’ll have destroyed each other just like they did in 2023. We’ll walk back into office.”

The ruling party also faces its own internal tensions. Northern governors, who reluctantly backed Tinubu in 2023 under a power-sharing arrangement, are reportedly exploring their options. Sources say some are maintaining back-channel communications with opposition figures, waiting to see how the ADC situation resolves.

Regional Calculations

The defection has scrambled regional political calculations across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

In the North, where Atiku remains influential despite three presidential election losses, traditional rulers and political elders are convening to assess their options. Many northern elites had assumed that after Tinubu’s term, power would return to the North—making Atiku an attractive candidate. However, his partnership with Obi complicates this calculation.

“If Atiku is the candidate and Obi is VP, that works for the North,” says Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, a northern elder statesman. “But if it’s Obi on top, many northerners will ask why they should support a southeastern candidate when we have credible northern aspirants.”

Southeastern leaders have hailed Obi’s continued presidential ambitions, seeing it as the region’s best chance at producing a president since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. However, they are realistic about the arithmetic.

“Obi cannot win without significant northern support,” says Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe. “The question is whether northern voters will accept a southeasterner at the top of the ticket, or if the old prejudices will resurface.”

In the Southwest, Tinubu’s home base, rising costs of living are creating cracks in the president’s support, though the region is still expected to vote overwhelmingly for the APC in 2027.

The South-South and Middle Belt regions, traditional swing zones, are being courted intensively by all camps.

The Waiting Game

For now, ADC officials say no timeline has been set for primaries or candidate selection. Electoral laws require parties to conduct primaries at least six months before the general election, meaning the ADC has until mid-2026 to resolve its presidential candidate question.

But political observers say the uncertainty itself is damaging.

“Every day that goes by without clarity on who’s running weakens the opposition,” says Prof. Momoh. “Donors don’t know where to put their money. Grassroots organizers don’t know which camp to join. Voters don’t know what they’re voting for. Meanwhile, the APC is organizing, fundraising, and preparing.”

Some opposition figures are calling for a broader coalition that transcends ADC, bringing in other parties like NNPP and potentially disaffected APC members. But such efforts face the same fundamental problem: too many presidential aspirants, not enough presidential slots.

What Voters Are Saying

On the streets of Lagos, Abuja, and Kano, reactions to the dual defection are mixed.

“I voted for Obi in 2023 because he represented something new,” says Chioma Okafor, a 32-year-old teacher in Lagos. “If he’s now in the same party as Atiku, who represents the old politics, what’s the difference? I need to see that they can actually work together before I get excited.”

Musa Abdullahi, a trader in Kano, expresses a common northern sentiment: “We respect Atiku, but we also remember he’s lost many times. Maybe it’s time for someone else. But not Obi—the North will not vote for Obi as president.”

These sentiments underscore the challenge facing the ADC experiment. Even if Atiku and Obi could somehow resolve their competing ambitions, the question remains whether their bases can unite behind a single ticket.

The Billion-Naira Question

Nigerian politics has a long history of unlikely alliances and surprise betrayals. Former enemies become running mates. Party loyalists defect overnight. Ironclad promises dissolve under political pressure.

But the Atiku-Obi situation may represent something unprecedented: two politicians whose public commitments have boxed them into a corner from which neither can escape without losing face.

“Obi has built his entire brand on being different, on not being like the old politicians,” says Osori. “If he accepts VP under Atiku, he destroys that brand. But Atiku has spent 20 years building toward the presidency. At 77, he’s not stepping aside for anyone.”

The next six months will reveal whether the ADC defection was a masterstroke of opposition strategy or a collision course that was doomed from the start.

For now, Nigerian voters battered by economic hardship are watching to see whether their opposition leaders can put aside ego and ambition long enough to mount a credible challenge to the ruling party.

The 2027 presidential campaign has begun in earnest—two years early, and with a question mark at its center that no one seems able to answer.