Analysts caution Atiku Abubakar on 2027 alliance amid PDP, LP crisis

As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential election, former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar faces caution from political stakeholders regarding any potential alliance with Labour Party (LP) counterpart Peter Obi and other opposition figures.

Analysts argue that, given the ongoing leadership crises within the PDP, LP, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Atiku’s efforts to forge a coalition to unseat President Bola Tinubu may be futile.

Since the controversial 2023 presidential election, the PDP has grappled with factional disputes over the National Chairman position, a situation mirrored within the Labour Party.

Similarly, the NNPP has experienced turmoil, highlighted by the recent suspension of its Kano State Secretary Abdullahi Baffa Bichi and Commissioner of Transportation Muhammad Diggol, who were accused of disloyalty and abuse of power.

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In a notable development earlier this year, political scientist Pat Utomi explored the idea of forming a new political party with Atiku, Obi, and NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso, which he recently claimed had gained traction.

However, this assertion was met with skepticism by All Progressives Congress (APC) National Publicity Secretary Felix Morka, who dismissed Utomi’s comments as “an unmitigated delusion of grandeur,” emphasizing the unlikelihood of such an alliance succeeding.

Despite these setbacks, Atiku’s Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Paul Ibe, confirmed that discussions among opposition leaders are ongoing, albeit discreetly. Ibe emphasized the need for a united front to “recover Nigeria from these people just toiling with the lives and destiny of Nigerians.”

However, Katchi Ononuju, Director General of the Heritage Centre, dismissed the prospect of a successful merger, noting that only Kwankwaso has expressed a willingness to collaborate with Obi.

He criticized Atiku’s ambitions, suggesting they undermine the unity necessary for an effective opposition.

According to Ononuju, the internal crises within both the PDP and LP render any serious merger discussions impossible. He asserted that Atiku’s failure to step down for a younger Southern candidate would prevent any significant political alliance, highlighting the youth movement’s dissatisfaction with his leadership.

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Ononuju further criticized Atiku’s past actions, claiming that his refusal to support Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency and attempts to undermine the opposition have ultimately led to the current fragmented political landscape.

He asserted that any alliance formed under such conditions would lack credibility and trust.

Echoing this sentiment, activist lawyer Deji Adeyanju stated that no merger could realistically challenge Tinubu’s political alignment in 2027.

He contended that the opposition had squandered previous opportunities by failing to present a united front during the last election cycle, emphasizing that the divided state of the opposition only benefits Tinubu and the APC.

Adeyanju expressed skepticism about the efficacy of an opposition merger, noting that past election outcomes have demonstrated the challenges of contesting against a well-aligned ruling party.

He urged opposition figures to focus on their individual popularity rather than pursuing a coalition that may not yield electoral success.

As the political landscape evolves in the lead-up to the 2027 election, the potential for a unified opposition remains uncertain, with Atiku Abubakar at the center of a complex web of factional disputes and aspirations.