Booming naira, shrinking dollars: Nigeria’s export “growth” masks deep structural decline

Nigeria’s export earnings reached an all-time high of N77.4 trillion in 2024, but behind this apparent windfall lies a sobering truth: export performance in U.S. dollar terms has plummeted by nearly 48% over the last decade, exposing a troubling mismatch between nominal gains and real economic strength.

Experts warn that the sharp contrast between naira and dollar figures reveals not growth, but a currency illusion—one driven by massive naira devaluation, weak productivity, and institutional inertia.

According to research analysis, Nigeria’s export value surged 375.09% in naira terms, rising from N16.3 trillion in 2014 to N77.44 trillion in 2024.

However, when converted to U.S. dollars, the story changes dramatically: export earnings fell 47.53%, from $96.09 billion to $50.42 billion. This plunge is largely the result of an 805.13% depreciation of the naira over the period.

“This is a dangerous illusion of growth,” said Damilare Asimiyu, Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa. “In naira terms, it may appear progressive. But from a dollar perspective, we have retrogressed.”

He explained that crude oil, which constituted 92% of exports in 2014, was selling above $100 per barrel, compared to about $80 today. “In naira terms, you could argue there’s growth, but the U.S. dollar is the global yardstick,” he added.

Despite multiple calls for economic diversification, Nigeria remains trapped in a crude oil dependency cycle.

In 2024, oil and gas accounted for 85% of export earnings, leaving the economy dangerously exposed to global price shocks and local disruptions.

Major structural impediments—such as pipeline vandalism, stalled upstream projects like Bonga South West-Aparo and Zabazaba-Etan, and persistent underinvestment—continue to limit oil production capacity.

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Samuel Oyekanmi, Head of Research at Norrenberg, described Nigeria’s export performance as “stagnant,” adding:

“We’ve failed to break free from the oil mono-economy model. Our inability to meet crude oil quotas, driven by oil theft and infrastructure decay, means we’re not even maximizing our main export.”

While non-oil exports have grown 250% in naira terms, they have declined 60.7% in dollar terms over the past decade.

This stark disparity highlights the weak industrial base, poor logistics, and lack of policy consistency that continue to plague Nigeria’s non-oil sector.

Factors such as insecurity, especially in northern agricultural zones, and port congestion further undermine competitiveness. Power shortages, bad roads, and regulatory bottlenecks add to the woes.

Mr Ayegbeni Kanabe, Chief Compliance & Risk Officer at Zigma-Alpha Asset Management, summed it up:

“The real decline in exports stems from distortions in the exchange rate and declining productivity caused by widespread insecurity.”

Though recent reforms—such as exchange rate unification and trade liberalization—are commendable, analysts insist they are not enough.

“Reforms without institutional strength are cosmetic,” Asimiyu warned. “We need strong institutions to enforce accountability, improve port efficiency, and regulate energy distribution.”

Kanabe emphasized the role of infrastructure and security, saying, “Without safer roads and better rural-urban connectivity, reforms will not move the needle.”

Oyekanmi was more blunt: “If we don’t make sustained structural changes, we’ll keep recycling the same problems.”

Between 2014 and 2024, Nigeria’s per capita GDP in dollar terms dropped from $3,020 to $840, underlining the real income decline and erosion of economic competitiveness.

Meanwhile, crude oil export revenue fell from $70.08 billion in 2014 to $27.02 billion in 2024. Non-oil exports also declined in dollar terms, despite inflationary naira gains.

Nigeria’s “booming” naira export numbers are not a cause for celebration—but rather a red flag signaling deeper structural imbalances.

Experts urge the government to urgently shift from oil dependence and invest in agriculture, manufacturing, and mining, all of which remain underutilized despite Nigeria’s natural endowments.

A sustainable path forward, analysts agree, requires more than macroeconomic tweaks. It demands a national strategy focused on institutional reform, infrastructure overhaul, and inclusive economic policies that can create real, resilient growth.

Until then, Nigeria’s export “success” story will remain a mirage painted in naira, hiding a crisis of lost dollar value.