Lagos 2023: Battle for Sanwo-Olu successor rattles Tinubu’s dynasty

The leadership structures of the ruling Al Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos State is gradually becoming heated by the scramble for the successor of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu after his first tenure in 2023. Potential aspirants for the 2023 governorship election have been lubricating their political machines for the battle ahead. Most aspirants have begun to set up ad hoc mobilization groups for socialization, sensitization, contacts, overtures, negotiations, and tradeoffs.

National Daily gathered that APC leaders in Lagos State are having busy hours daily receiving party members seeking support and endorsement. The lobby and horse trading for the 2023 APC governorship ticket, including other elections, have permeated the party structures, with increasing pressures on party leaders for endorsement in Lagos State, according to a party source. Accordingly, the lobbies and increasing overtures were revealed to be steaming the APC boardroom or the decision-making organs of the party in the state in the build up to 2023 general elections.

National Daily investigation revealed that a crucial factor in the lobby for the 2023 APC governorship ticket is the zoning or power rotation policy of the party in Lagos State. The zoning arrangement commenced from Lagos Central in 1999; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, became the governor of the state from the zone and served for two tenures of eight years, cumulatively, 1999 to 2007. Thereafter, power shifted to Lagos West from where former Governor Babatunde Fashola emerged and was in office for eight years of two tenures, 2007 to 2015. Lagos East completed the circle of the power shift in the state with the emergence of former Governor Akinwumi Ambode in 2015. Ambode did not make it for a second tenure due to political frictions with the godfathers and APC leaders. He was succeeded by incumbent Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu in 2019 to complete the second tenure of four years for Lagos East.

As the horse trading and overtures intensify, the APC boardroom may be saddled with the political calculus of restarting power shift or rotation of the governorship ticket between the three senatorial districts in Lagos State.

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In 2023, each of the three senatorial districts in the state – Lagos Central, Lagos West and Lagos East – would have served eight years of two tenures, respectively, with Lagos East encountering notable instability and inconsistency, producing two governors in each of the two tenures – Governor Ambode 2015 to 2019, and Governor Sanwo-Olu 2019 to 2023. Others had stability in their tenures, producing one governor, respectively, who served out the two tenures of eight years.

In the build up to 2023, if the Lagos APC boardroom decides to sustain the power rotation in the state for the purpose of equity and justice in the state, they may be considering restarting the power shift either from Lagos Central, indicating starting from the origin, or from Lagos West; otherwise, in the second phase of power rotation in the state. Lagos East is the last beneficiary of the first phase of the zoning arrangement.

If the second phase begins from Lagos East, the flow of power shift may be complicated as Governor Sanwo-Olu is serving out the one tenure former Governor Ambode was obstructed from having by the party leadership. invariably, one more tenure for the Lagos East would imply that the zone is having three tenures while others have two. Balancing such a power equation would be difficult for the APC boardroom. This would also have a multiplier effect on any other zone that would be the recipient of the zoning arrangement in Lagos.

Invariably, Lagos Central and Lagos West appear more suitable for the 2023 APC governorship ticket in restarting the power shift policy in the state to avoid further complications and distortions of the power rotation policy.

There are insinuations that incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu is lobbying the APC leaders in the state, purportedly seeking endorsement for a second tenure. The governor was alleged to be making overtures to leaders of the ruling party in the state to consider granting him ‘a right of first refusal’ before opting for other aspirants. The purported political simulation could be feasible if the incumbent governor shifts his representation from Lagos East to either Lagos West or Lagos Central. In that case, he would be taking the slot of any of the two zones where the state party could be restarting the zoning arrangement. However, since the incumbent governor would be serving one tenure of four years more, the compromised zone may be presenting only one representative of their own; and would have lost one tenure in the compromise.

There were indications that when the APC Governors Advisory Council (GAC) in Lagos State headed by the party’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, resolved to stop former Governor Ambode from second tenure, incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu was brought up on the understanding of serving one tenure to complete the second tenure of Lagos East, ending the first phase of power rotation in Lagos.
Meanwhile, incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu was gathered to be currently preoccupied with providing quality governance and delivering the dividends of democracy to residents of the state rather than bargaining for a second tenure.

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Some APC stakeholders in the state were said to have made the innuendo that the visit of Sanwo-Olu to the party leader, Tinubu, in the United Kingdom, was a covert plan to lobby Tinubu for a second tenure endorsement. However, the governor was in the UK during pessimists’ speculations over the health status of the former Lagos State governor. Governor Sanwo-Olu, on return from the UK dispelled all pessimistic speculations on the health and life of Tinubu, declaring that the party leader was in good health.

Meanwhile, potential aspirants being identified in the state party to be purportedly jostling for the succession of Governor Sanwo-Olu in 2023 include the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly, Rt. Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, incumbent Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, incumbent Chief of Staff to Governor Sanwo-Olu, Tayo Ayinde, the State Head of Service, Hakeem Muri-Okunola. However, none of the identified potential aspirants has formally declared for the 2023 governorship race, but ad hoc mobilization groups are perceived to be on duty. Also, some of the potential aspirants have been noticed to have devoted enormous resources to providing constituency projects, at least to convince their respective primary constituencies.
Some of the potential aspirants were further identified to have close relationship or are loyalists of the party leader, Asiwaju Tinubu.
Deputy Governor Hamzat may, however, be the odd man, being a member of a power bloc in Lagos State, the justice group, working in collaboration with the Mandate group led by Tinubu for the party’s domination of Lagos politics.

Deputy Governor Hamzat was sponsored in 2015 by former Governor Babatunde Fashola for the Lagos State governor but former Governor Ambode got the ticket. Hamzat was in the governorship race again in 2019. Perhaps, the resolve to stop Ambode from second tenure resulted in a perceived alliance that persuaded Hamzat to step down for Sanwo-Olu at the APC primary election to stabilise the party’s decision against Ambode. Hamzat, accordingly, settled for deputy governor.

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The identified potential governorship aspirants were said to have commenced strengthening their political forte in the stater APC during the July 25 local government election in Lagos State. Hamzat was perceived to have used his influence to secure victory for four local government chairmen, including his younger brother in Ifako/Ijaye LCDA.

Speaker Gbajabiamila was noticed to have complained of ‘manipulation’ of the local government election in the state.
The Convener of Lagos4Lagos, a radical political movement in the state to displace the existing status quo in the APC, Olajide Adediran – Jandor, was also identified to be in the race for Sanwo-Olu’s successor.

However, the APC boardroom may also have the task of balancing the religious question on the party’s leadership in governance. The Muslim believers have produced two governors, Tinubu and Fashola, while the Christian believers have also produced two governors – Ambode and Sanwo-Olu. Currently, there is a balance on this arrangement.

National Daily will continue monitoring the political horse trading and overtures and will bring updates in subsequent reports.