Nigeria’s inflation rate expected to drop to 15% by end of 2025

CEO and Founder of Awabah, Tunji Andrews, has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will decline to 15% by the end of 2025. Andrews made this prediction during his appearance on the Drinks and Mics podcast, hosted by Ugo Obi-Chukwu, CEO of Nairametrics, on Friday.

Expressing optimism about the country’s current economic trajectory, Andrews stated,

 “We are hitching closer to the 15[%] mark, and we are going to get there. If you look around, just generally feel Nigeria… they [prices] don’t have to come down for inflation to drop. They just have to remain stable.”

He further explained that while certain commodities like dairy and eggs may experience price fluctuations, the cost of everyday essentials has remained relatively stable.

“You’ve not gone to the supermarket recently and seen a spike in prices of normal commodities. Regular stuff that you normally buy on a day-to-day basis has still stayed the same prices. So, I do believe that we will continue to see a drop in inflation till the end of the year,” Andrews noted.

Andrews also highlighted the impact of adjustments in Nigeria’s inflation basket, which now includes a wider range of goods and services. According to him, the previous inflation basket was heavily influenced by petrol prices, whereas the current basket incorporates items less affected by fuel costs.

“Mind you, the general context of inflation is now enlarged. We’ve put a lot more things inside it. And those things are not as affected by petrol as we used to have. The previous basket was heavily affected by petrol,” he explained.

His comments come amid ongoing efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the federal government to curb inflation, which has remained a persistent economic challenge.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s inflation rate drops to 23.18% in February 2025 amid economic adjustments

According to the latest Consumer Price Index and Inflation Report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 23.18% in February 2025, down from 24.1% in January 2025.

Economic expert Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for Protection of Private Enterprises (CPPE), has also projected a potential further decline in Nigeria’s inflation rate in 2025, citing a combination of government policies and improving macroeconomic conditions.

Dr. Yusuf explained, “The further deceleration in inflation rate in February can be ascribed to two factors. The first is the base effect. When we compare the 2025 figures to 2024, you’re likely to see a significant deceleration [in the inflation rate gap].

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Inflation is essentially measured on a year-on-year basis, and because prices in 2024 were highly elevated, we should see some relief.”

President Bola Tinubu has repeatedly emphasized his administration’s commitment to reducing the inflation rate from 34.6% to 15% by the end of 2025. In his 2025 budget presentation on December 18, 2024, Tinubu projected a reduction in inflation and set ambitious economic targets.

Despite these ambitious plans, economic analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of these projections, especially the inflation target.

When Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria’s inflation rate stood at 22.41%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

However, inflation surged to 34.6% by November 2024, a sharp increase many economists attribute to the president’s controversial policies, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the country’s foreign exchange rates.

Despite these challenges, President Tinubu’s budget speech projected optimism—not only for inflation but also for the exchange rate, which he believes will improve from N1,700 per dollar to N1,500 per dollar by 2025.

As Nigeria approaches the end of 2025, economic experts and policymakers will closely monitor whether these projections materialize, shaping the country’s financial stability and overall economic outlook.