Stable world order may emerge if…— Chinese economist Yifu Lin

Professor Yifu Lin, Honorary Dean at the National School of Development, Peking University, has projected that a new and more stable world structure may emerge once China’s per capita GDP reaches half that of the United States.

Speaking at a lecture organised by the China Public Diplomacy Association (CPDA) in Beijing, Lin emphasized the global implications of China’s economic trajectory.

Delivering his lecture on “China’s Medium and Long-Term Development and the Significance of Its Stable Growth to the World”, the former World Bank Chief Economist highlighted China’s current GDP of 134.9 trillion yuan ($18.8 trillion) and its consistent contribution of nearly 30% to global economic growth.

“Chinese-style modernisation holds significance not only for its own development but also as a crucial pillar for global stability,” Lin said. “With sustained growth, China’s success could effectively double the share of the global population living in high-income countries.”

He argued that China’s rise, underpinned by technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and the development of emerging industries, offers a unique model of growth. China, according to Lin, holds three major advantages: a large pool of technological talent, a vast domestic market, and the world’s most comprehensive industrial supply chain.

Lin dismissed the “China collapse theory” popular among some Western analysts, pointing out that China is the only major economy to have avoided a systemic financial crisis in the last four decades.

Turning to U.S.-China relations, Lin acknowledged growing trade tensions but said full economic decoupling remains unlikely.

“Despite tariff hikes, key products like iPhones and chips are still exempt due to cost implications for U.S. companies,” he noted, adding that many U.S. high-tech firms depend heavily on the Chinese market to remain profitable.

“Economic decoupling would have a greater negative impact on the U.S. than on China,” Lin warned. “U.S. companies cannot sustain global technological leadership without access to Chinese consumers.”

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He also expressed concern over the consequences of prolonged trade wars, warning that such tensions could replicate the economic devastation of the Great Depression, which followed the 1929 stock market crash and the U.S.’s imposition of protectionist tariffs.

In response, Lin urged the global community—especially the 85% of economies outside the U.S.—to resist negotiating trade disputes individually and instead work collectively under a rules-based system.

“We should reestablish a rules-based international system. Trade issues must return to the WTO framework for fair and structured resolution,” he said.

Lin’s remarks come at a time of mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as nations weigh the implications of China’s rising economic influence and the evolving nature of U.S.-China competition.