Tinubu’s Rough Road to 2027: Politics in the Shadow of Buhari’s Death

Tinubu’s Rough Road to 2027 Politics in the Shadow of Buhari’s Death.

Nigeria reacted with mixed emotions when former President Muhammadu Buhari died in 2025. For millions in the North, his passing was the loss of a father figure , a man they saw as incorruptible, austere, and a custodian of their political relevance. But in the South and parts of the Middle Belt, his death reopened old wounds, with critics arguing that Buhari’s eight years in office deepened divisions, worsened insecurity, and left the economy in ruins.

READ ALSO:The Day the River Came: Nigeria’s Hidden Climate Exodus

This split legacy revered in the North, resented in many other regions is now reshaping Nigeria’s political terrain ahead of the 2027 elections. And no one feels the weight of this vacuum more than President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who must navigate the aftershocks of Buhari’s death while fighting for his own political survival.

Former President Buhari and President Bola Tinubu, during handing over

Across Lagos, Tinubu’s traditional stronghold, loyalty remains strong. Many remember him as the architect of modern Lagos, the strategist who outmaneuvered the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) after 16 years in power. But in Kano and Katsina, Buhari’s heartland, some voters are skeptical that Tinubu can carry the northern mantle. “Tinubu is our president, yes,” says Alhaji Usman Bello, a retired civil servant in Kano. “But Buhari was our father. He protected us, he gave the North dignity. Without him, things feel uncertain.”

Tinubu’ and Buhari’

That uncertainty is proving costly. Inflation is high,  fuel subsidy removals sparked protests, and food prices have doubled in markets across the country. Banditry in the northwest continues to displace thousands, while separatist agitation simmers in the southeast. Buhari’s symbolic presence once softened northern discontent with these national struggles. His death removes that buffer, leaving Tinubu more exposed , Tinubu’s Rough Road.

In Enugu, political analyst Onyeka offers a harsher assessment: “Buhari left Nigeria worse than he met it poorer, hungrier, more divided. The fact that Tinubu tied his presidency to Buhari’s coalition means he is now carrying that baggage into 2027.”

Inside the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Buhari’s absence has also created a leadership vacuum. Governors and party barons who once deferred to him are testing their independence, some quietly floating alternative presidential hopefuls. The PDP, though fractured, is sensing opportunity, while youth-led movements energized by the 2023 elections are regrouping online and on the streets.

Yet Tinubu is not without tools. His mastery of political negotiation remains formidable, and his control of the APC’s national structure gives him leverage. He has begun outreach to northern clerics, governors, and traditional rulers, attempting to inherit Buhari’s symbolic mantle while pitching himself as a reformer. “Tinubu knows he cannot be Buhari,” says Dr. Ahmed , a Kano based political analyst “But he is trying to show he can lead Nigeria in his own way.”

For many ordinary Nigerians, however, politics is far removed from their daily battles. In abuja, a petty trader Halima shrugs when asked about 2027. “All I know is that food is too expensive and life is too hard. Whether Tinubu or anyone else wins, what matters is if things will change.”

As the 2027 elections draw nearer, Tinubu’s challenge is stark: hold together a party without Buhari’s northern anchor, repair a battered economy, and convince a skeptical electorate that he is not just surviving Buhari’s shadow but stepping out of it.

Whether he succeeds or not, Buhari’s death has redrawn the map of Nigerian politics. For Tinubu, the road to 2027 is not only rough, it may be the toughest journey of his career.