Nigeria’s mobile subscriptions rebound to 157.3m in October after database audit

Nigeria’s mobile subscription base saw a remarkable recovery in October 2024, rebounding to 157.3 million active subscriptions, up from 154.6 million in September.

The growth, documented by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), comes after months of industry turbulence caused by the implementation of the National Identification Number (NIN)-SIM linkage exercise and an extensive database audit.

The resurgence was spearheaded by telecom giants MTN and Airtel, highlighting their ability to navigate regulatory challenges and drive subscriber growth.

MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest telecom operator, added a staggering 2.2 million active subscriptions in October, bringing its total subscriber base to 80.3 million.

With a commanding market share of 51.09 percent, MTN continues to solidify its leadership in the industry.

Airtel Nigeria followed with a net gain of 697,430 new subscriptions, increasing its active customer base to 54.4 million. This brought Airtel’s market share to 31.61 percent, reinforcing its position as the second-largest operator in the country.

While MTN and Airtel thrived, smaller operators faced continued difficulties. Globacom, which had already been significantly impacted by the NIN-SIM linkage exercise, recorded a further decline of 44,635 subscriptions in October.

Its active subscriber base now stands at 19.1 million, representing 12.15 percent of the market.

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Similarly, 9mobile experienced a loss of 245,263 subscriptions during the same period, reducing its active customer base to 3.3 million. This leaves the operator with just a 2.15 percent market share, highlighting the widening gap between smaller players and the market leaders.

The earlier decline in mobile subscriptions was attributed to the NCC’s enforcement of the NIN-SIM linkage exercise, which required subscribers to link their SIM cards with their national identification numbers.

Subscribers who failed to comply faced disconnection, causing active subscriptions to plummet from 219 million in March to 154 million by September 2024.

In addition, the NCC’s database audit uncovered significant irregularities in subscriber classifications. One operator was found to have misclassified approximately 40 million inactive lines as active, a violation of regulatory guidelines.

These lines had not generated revenue for over 90 days, prompting the NCC to enforce corrective measures aimed at enhancing data integrity and regulatory compliance.

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The recovery in mobile subscriptions has also bolstered Nigeria’s teledensity, which climbed to 72.7 percent in October from 71.46 percent in September. Teledensity measures the number of active telephone connections per 100 inhabitants, based on the NCC’s population estimate of 216 million.

Telecom analysts view the recovery as a positive signal for the sector’s resilience. “The growth trajectory shows the industry’s ability to bounce back despite the disruptions caused by the audit and NIN-SIM linkage exercise,” said telecom analyst Kehinde Johnson.

“MTN and Airtel have leveraged aggressive marketing and service improvements, but smaller operators like Globacom and 9mobile need to rethink their strategies to stay competitive.”

The NCC’s audit has highlighted the importance of accurate data reporting in fostering transparency and maintaining regulatory compliance. “Cleaning up inactive lines was a necessary step to ensure reliable industry metrics. However, smaller operators must innovate to remain relevant in a market dominated by larger players,” said Ayodele Ogunsola, a telecom policy consultant.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate further growth in active subscriptions, driven by rising mobile penetration and expanded network coverage. However, smaller operators face an uphill battle to regain their market share, underscoring the need for innovation and investment in a competitive telecom landscape.

As Nigeria’s telecom sector continues to recover, the onus is on all players to build consumer trust, enhance services, and ensure compliance with regulatory standards to sustain long-term growth.