Iran-Israel tensions may push petrol price to ₦1,000/Litre as crude oil soars

Global crude oil prices are on a sharp upward trajectory, threatening to push petrol pump prices in Nigeria to as high as N1,000 per litre. This surge is primarily driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, following coordinated airstrikes by the United States and Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a move that could significantly impact global oil supply.

On Friday, June 20, 2025, U.S. forces conducted what President Donald Trump described as a “preemptive defensive strike” on three major Iranian nuclear sites, claiming the attacks obliterated vital infrastructure. These actions coincided with similar operations by Israeli forces. In response, Iran, the third-largest crude oil producer within OPEC, has vowed retaliation.

Adding to the geopolitical instability, Iran’s parliament reportedly initiated moves to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route through which nearly 20% of global oil shipments pass. While the move is not yet final, the mere threat caused immediate market reactions, sending Brent crude prices surging in early trading. As of Monday, June 23, 2025, Brent crude was trading at approximately $77.06 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was around $73.84. Since the conflict began on June 13, Brent has gained 11%, and WTI has increased by 10%.

Energy analysts have warned that if Brent crude crosses the $80 per barrel mark, Nigerians could begin paying N1,000 per litre of petrol.

Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of PetroleumPrice.ng, confirmed that private depots are preparing to raise petrol prices as early as Monday, in direct response to the international market dynamics. “If crude hits or exceeds $80 by tomorrow, depot prices could hit N1,000. Many are already exploiting the situation, but we hope Dangote maintains its current rate to stabilize the market,” he said. He noted that the previous week’s price spike followed a temporary halt in supply by Dangote Refinery, but operations have since resumed.

As of now, Dangote is supplying petrol at N880 for bulk orders of two million litres, significantly influencing market trends.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) confirmed the dire situation, attributing it to rising global crude prices and persistent volatility in the foreign exchange market. “Crude oil has moved from $66 to about $77 per barrel, and that directly impacts domestic petrol prices,” said IPMAN’s National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike.

Ukadike explained that both the Dangote refinery and private importers have adjusted their prices in response to these market forces. For instance:

• Dangote refinery raised its price from N825 to N880 on Friday.
• MRS Oil and other distributors increased pump prices to N955 in parts of the South-East and North-West.
• In Lagos, petrol was being sold at N925 by MRS and other Dangote partners.
• Other retailers adjusted prices between N930 and N960, depending on location.

Ukadike further warned that the cost of acquiring 50,000 litres of petrol is becoming unsustainable for independent marketers, forcing many to review their pricing strategies. “We’re seeing prices around N980, N990, and even N1,000 in parts of the North due to high transportation costs,” he added.

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He also clarified that even locally refined petrol from Dangote is not exempt from price volatility since the refinery sources crude oil at international market rates.

Depot Pricing Breakdown (As of Monday, June 23, 2025):

• Rainoil: N900 (up from N850)
• Fynefield: N930 (up N51)
• Mainland: N920 (up N63)
• Sigmund: N920
• Matrix Warri: N910
• NIPCO: N895 (up from N827)
• Aiteo: N840
• SGR: N930 (previously N850)

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) is also expected to adjust its pricing in response to these ongoing market dynamics.

Global analysts have projected a significant jump in crude prices: Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy anticipates markets will price in a higher geopolitical risk premium. SEB Analyst Ole Hvalbye predicted a $3–$5 jump per barrel when markets reopened.

Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen expects an initial $4–$5 rise, though some long positions may be unwound. UBS Analyst Giovanni Staunovo emphasized that further price movement depends on whether the conflict genuinely disrupts oil supply.

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