How Tinubu, APC won historical unpopular presidential election

Elections in Nigeria have been recording successive unpopularity in the contemporary democratic dispensation since 1999. Voter’s participation in the transition process and turnout on election days been on perpetual decline. Statistics has shown that between 65 to 70 per cent of total registered voters seldom turn out to vote on election days in Nigeria. The performance percentage of parties and their candidates in all elections are often based on the figure of the voting population that participate in a given election. Citizens doldrums during general elections in the country haves been on constant increase.

Some stakeholders have pointed out that comparative statistics of elections in recent years show that the February 25, 2023, presidential election recorded notable historical unpopular poll in the country; noting that the principal beneficiary turned out to be Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

In the APC era, the figure of registered voters in the presidential election of March 28-29, 2015, was 68,833,476, while voters turnout was 43.65%.

The joint ticket of Muhammadu Buhari and Yemi Osinbajo of the APC, won 21 states in the election with total popular votes of 15,424,921, representing 53.96% of votes cast.

The joint ticket of Goodluck Jonathan and Namadi Sambo of the PDP won 15 states plus FCT with total popular votes of 12,853,162, representing 44.96% of votes cast.

Beside the votes of other candidates, Buhari and Jonathan had a total of 28,278,083 popular votes.

In the presidential election of February 23 to 24, 2019, of the   82,344,107 registered voters; voters’ turnout was 34.75%.

Again, the joint ticket of Buhari and Osinbajo won 19 states with total of 15,191,847 votes, representing 55.60% of votes cast. The joint ticket of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi of the PDP won 17 states plus the FCT with total votes of 11,262,978, representing 41.22% of votes cast.

The sum total of both presidential candidates was 26,454,825 popular votes.

The 2023 presidential election had approxima6tely 87 million registered voters.

The joint ticket of Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima of the APC won 12 states with total votes of 8,794,726, representing 36.61% of votes cast. However, the APC did not get 25% pf the votes in the FCT.

The joint ticket of Atiku Abubakar and Ifeanyi Okowa of the PDP, won 12 states, having a total of 6,984,520 votes, representing 29.07% of votes cast.

Peter Obi and Yusuf Datti Baba Ahmed of the LP, won 11 states plus FCT, with 6,101,533 votes, representing 25.40%.

Rabiu Kwankwaso and Isaac Idahosa of the NNPP, won 1 state, 1,496,687, representing 6.23%.

The top four presidential candidates could only have a total of 23,377,466 popular votes; Tinubu and Atiku, together had 15,779,246 votes. Both figures are well below the records of the two top candidates from the APC and PDP in the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections.

Atiku and Obi, who paired in the 2019 presidential election, jointly, had 13,086,053 popular votes in the 2023 presidential elections but had to split the votes between the PDP and Labour Party, thus, being separately defeated in the election by Tinubu of the APC, who singularly had 8,794,726 popular votes. Obi took away 6,101,533 votes from the PDP to the LP.

The winning figures of the APC of 15,424,921 votes in 2015 which reduced to 15,191,847 votes in 2019 declined to 8,794,726 votes, recording a huge deficit of 6,630,195 and 6,397,121 popular votes in the victory of Tinubu and the APC in the 2023 presidential election.

As has been the tradition with elections in Nigeria, the two frontline losers, Atiku of the PDP, and Obi of the LP, have rejected the result and have approached the court for nullification, protesting that the electoral process was flawed.

Some other stakeholders were of the assumption that the high figure of diminishing popular votes recorded in the 2023 presidential poll won Tinubu was an indication that Nigerians rejected Tinubu and the APC. The stakeholders noted that rather than the victory being celebrated, there has been calm, insinuating that the calmness implies the unsatisfaction of popular expectations.

The last-minute resolve of the Independent National Electoral Commission on the election day to renege on initial promises to use BVAS to transmit results electronically to the commission’s server has been generating wide suspicion and distrust of the transparency and credibility of the electoral process.

The Financial Times of London, the United Kingdom, in its editorial on March 2, 2023, emphasised that what Nigeria needed above all was a clean election to reiterate the basic message of democracy: that a sovereign people can choose its leaders. It stated that “sadly, it did not happen. The election – which appears to have delivered the presidency to Bola Tinubu, a wealthy political fixer, running for the incumbent All Progressives Congress – was badly mismanaged at best. It failed to set the example needed for West Africa, … Nigeria remains a democracy, but only just.”

The Financial Times also stated that neutral observers thought the Independent National Electoral Commission was in good shape.

The Financial Times, in editorial highlighted inter alia: “they had high expectations that INEC’s promise to transmit voting tallies electronically from polling stations would eliminate ballot stuffing. The outgoing President, Muhammadu Buhari, had staked what remains of his tattered reputation on a clean contest.

“Yet, the INEC badly misfired. Voting started late in many districts, depriving millions of the right to vote. “The system to upload results from 177,000 polling stations shuttered, causing legitimate concerns of vote tampering during long delays. “Violence was troubling. Party goons invaded many polling stations in what appeared to be blatant acts of intimidation. The Financial Times witnessed armed men remove a presidential ballot box in Surulere, Lagos.

“More worrying still was the voter turnout which was pitifully low at 37 per cent. If official results are right, two-thirds of the 87 million people who lined up for hours to collect their voter registration cards failed to cast their ballot. Apathy cannot explain it. “Something, including the possibility of widespread voter suppression, must have prevented them from voting. Total turnout of 25 million votes in a country of 220 million people is unacceptably low.

“Tinubu’s tally of 8.8 million gives him the weakest of mandate.”

Meanwhile, National Daily investigation show that the increasing unpopular elections in Nigeria reflected in declining figures of popular votes could be a function of several factors, from the individual registered voter, politicians and society pressures, or the institutions that conduct elections in the country.