Politics

Presidential race 2019: Buhari faces risk of protest votes

Published

7 years ago

January 15, 2018

Olu Emmanuel

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As Kwankwaso’s profile rises in the North

By SUNDAY ODIBASHI

As the countdown to the 2019 general elections begins, symptoms of uncertainties are beginning to becloud the polity; the various aspirants have intensified mobilization for support and horse trading for the tickets of the respective political parties. The presidential aspirants have been engaged in intensive lobby of the ruling elite and leaders of the leading political parties, extending overtures for new alliances and coalitions.

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari has reactivated his political machine, dusted his Presidential Campaign Office, commenced appointment of campaign workers, for the 2019 presidential race. However, indicators are emerging that the incumbent president is gradually losing goodwill and popularity among northern youths and sections of the elite.

The momentous SAI BABA syndrome among northern youths which permeated other political climes in the country in 2015 has suddenly disappeared, and replaced with a new populism slogan – Kwankwasiyya – denoting new support inclination among northern youths for former the Governor of Kano State, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso.

The Kwankwasiyya slogan has seemingly been translated into medium of greetings and other forms of fraternal fellowship among northern youths on the streets of Lagos, particularly, motorcycle (okada) operators and street traders.

Findings show that the Kwankwasiyya slogan is also spreading across several states in the North while the SAI BABA has fast become unheard, sending strong signal that incumbent

President Buhari may have begun to lose grassroots popularity and support. The phenomenon, paradoxically, portrays that incumbent president may be at risk of protest votes in 2019 except the trend is reversed. The way the SAI BABA started in revolutionary impulse, theKwankwasiyya inclination is becoming inculcated in the psyche of the northern youths in their attachment to their leaders.

The statement of the Arewa Youths, a fortnight ago, which opposed President Buhari’s second term ambition where the group described the re-election project as insensitive to the plight of Nigerians, was a strong signal of what could await the president in 2019.

Incumbent President Buhari since 2003 has political asset that worth over 12 million votes.

The unsatisfactory performance of the APC regime in about the past two and a half years appears to have diminished the goodwill and political asset that heralded the president’s assumption of office in 2015.

From the North to the South are cornucopia of discontent citizens who have been suffering hardships and pains inflicted on them from the failure of the Buhari administration to deliver the dividends of democracy.

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Meanwhile, Kwankwaso is rapidly stealing the ‘show from the incumbent president; his political profile is currently on the rise.

The former Kano State Governor spent the past three months in the North East mobilizing grassroots support in preparation for the 2019 elections. The Senator moved his political edifice to Gombe where he engaged numerous stakeholders in the North East from Bauchi, Taraba, Borno, Yobe, Gombe to Adamwa states, negotiating support for both party ticket and grassroots support in the general elections. Kwankwaso also held dialogue with some stakeholders from the South while in Gombe but is yet to formally engage the major stakeholders in South.

Automatic ticket for President Buhari in the All Progressives Congress (APC) implies that the former Kano Governor will have to seek presidential ticket for 2019 on the platform of another political party.

Currently, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has opened the search for a credible presidential candidate beyond the bounds of the party. While some aspirants have declared for the party’s ticket, the PDP BoT Chairman, Jibrin Walid, maintained that the party is searching for a credible presidential candidate for 2019. Kwankwaso has been identified to be on the search list of the PDP despite the presence of former Vice President Abubakar Atiku.