Nigeria’s inflation slows to 22.22% in June 2025, urban price pressures persist

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.22% in June 2025, marking a 0.75 percentage point decline from the 22.97% recorded in May, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The drop represents the second consecutive monthly decline and reflects growing signs of macroeconomic stabilization.

On a year-on-year basis, the June figure is significantly lower than the 34.19% recorded in June 2024 — a 11.97 percentage point moderation attributed largely to base effects and tighter monetary policies.

However, beneath the headline improvement lies a more nuanced picture. Despite the year-on-year drop, the CPI — which tracks the average change in the prices of goods and services — climbed from 121.4 in May to 123.4 in June, indicating that prices are still rising, albeit at a slower pace.

Month-on-month inflation also edged higher at 1.68% in June compared to 1.53% in May, revealing persistent price pressures.

Urban areas continue to drive much of the inflationary strain. The urban inflation rate dropped year-on-year to 22.72% in June 2025 from 36.55% in the same period last year. Yet, on a month-to-month basis, urban inflation accelerated to 2.11%, up from 1.40% in May — suggesting intensifying cost-of-living challenges in Nigeria’s cities.

The twelve-month average for urban inflation also declined to 28.16% from 32.08% in June 2024, but experts warn that the month-on-month surge could limit consumer relief in the near term.

Rural inflation, on the other hand, provided some respite. Year-on-year rural inflation slowed to 20.85% in June from 32.09% a year earlier. Monthly rural inflation decelerated sharply to 0.63% in June from 1.83% in May — a 1.2 percentage point drop. The twelve-month average also fell to 24.65% from 28.15% in June 2024.

Commenting on the trend, Dr. Onome Ebhomielen, a senior economist at Lagos-based Zenith Macro Advisory, noted, “The headline data gives a sense that inflation is easing, but the persistence of monthly price increases, especially in urban areas, points to structural cost pressures — energy, logistics, and FX instability remain key drivers.”

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She added that “base effects are doing a lot of the work here. The true test of price stability will be whether month-on-month inflation moderates consistently through the second half of the year.”

Similarly, Olu Folarin, a policy analyst at the Nigerian Economic Research Institute, highlighted the role of monetary tightening in recent gains.

“The Central Bank’s hawkish stance and relative FX stability have helped anchor expectations, but inflation remains well above target. Until food and transport costs are tamed, households will continue to feel the squeeze.”

With inflation still far from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s preferred single-digit range, economists stress the need for sustained policy coordination — combining interest rate measures with fiscal interventions to tackle supply-side constraints.

In summary, while the June data reflects notable year-on-year disinflation and positive momentum for the Nigerian economy, continued month-on-month increases — particularly in cities — suggest that the fight against inflation is far from over.