Oil output slips again as OPEC flags 4.37% drop

Nigeria’s crude oil production declined by 4.37% in March 2025, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), deepening concerns over the country’s ability to meet its revenue targets amid mounting structural challenges in the energy sector.

The latest figures, released in OPEC’s April Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), show that Nigeria’s average daily crude output fell from 1.465 million barrels per day (bpd) in February to 1.401 million bpd in March.

This places the country’s current production 6.6% below its OPEC-assigned quota and nearly 32% short of the federal government’s ambitious 2025 production target of 2.06 million bpd.

Industry analysts attribute the persistent production shortfall to entrenched issues such as underinvestment, outdated infrastructure, and rampant oil theft—factors that have continuously undermined efforts to sustain or boost output despite Nigeria’s vast petroleum reserves.

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The production decline comes at a precarious time for Nigeria’s economy. With oil exports forming the backbone of government revenue, the dual blow of falling output and tumbling global oil prices poses a significant threat to fiscal stability. Brent crude recently dropped below $60 per barrel amid increased supply from OPEC+ and slowing global demand, intensifying pressure on Nigeria’s budget and widening its fiscal deficit.

“This situation is alarming,” said an oil sector analyst. “The country is not only producing below target, but also earning less per barrel. That combination puts enormous strain on public finances and limits the government’s ability to fund critical sectors like healthcare, education, and infrastructure.”

Data from the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed a 5% drop in oil production from January to February this year. The average output in February was 1.465 million bpd—down from January’s 1.539 million bpd. While the country briefly peaked at 1.7 million bpd in February, the production floor dipped to 1.6 million bpd, reflecting persistent volatility.

Despite these setbacks, experts insist there are steps the government can take to stabilize output. Curbing oil theft, incentivizing foreign and local investment, and modernizing oilfield infrastructure are crucial strategies for long-term improvement.

Unless urgent reforms are made, Nigeria risks deepening its economic vulnerability, as declining oil revenues continue to undermine efforts to boost growth, reduce poverty, and finance development.