PIG October Electoral Map projects APC 19 states, NDC 10, ADC 8 ahead of 2027

The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has released its October electoral map for the 2027 presidential election, projecting the distribution of states among three major political blocs based on current political developments.

At a press conference in Maryland, Lagos, on Friday, PIG Convener, Lai Omotola, said the monthly assessment should not be regarded as a prediction of the eventual election outcome, but as a snapshot of the political landscape if an election were held under the prevailing circumstances.

“Our monthly electoral map is for parties to see where they are weak and strong and this does not suggest the final result but rather if elections were to be held this month this projection is likely to be the outcome,” Omotola said.

According to the October assessment, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is projected to lead with 19 states, followed by the National Democratic Congress (NDC) with 10 states and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) with eight states.

The figures represent changes from PIG’s September map, which had projected the APC at 20 states, ADC at nine states and NDC at eight states.

Omotola attributed the APC’s decline from 20 to 19 states to the loss of Rivers State, despite the party gaining Adamawa State.

“This electoral map for October shows APC lost two states of Rivers but gained Adamawa state, reducing the number of states won by APC from 20 in September to 19 in October,” he said.

The ADC also recorded a reduction in its projected state tally, dropping from nine states in September to eight in October, with Adamawa moving into the APC column.

“ADC remained dominant in September 9 states but unfortunately lost Adamawa to APC. In October electoral map projects ADC will win 8 states,” Omotola said.

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In contrast, the NDC’s projected reach increased by two states, from eight in September to 10 states in October.

“In October, NDC increased the numEEber of states from 8 in September to 10 states in October,” Omotola said.

The October assessment followed several political developments during September which PIG said were considered in determining the latest map.

Omotola mentioned the reported denial of entry into Benue State involving Peter Obi, one of President Bola Tinubu’s prominent political opponents, as well as controversies surrounding Tinubu’s working vacation.

He also cited former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s continued focus on the fuel subsidy issue and what he described as a “sudden turnaround” among developments considered by the group.

On party mobilisation, Omotola said the APC appeared to have undertaken more campaign-related activities across the country, followed by the NDC. He said the ADC had constituted a Presidential Campaign Council but had yet to commence significant nationwide campaigning.

The PIG convener also highlighted emerging disagreements between some APC governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, as a political development that could affect calculations ahead of the election.

Summing up the October map, Omotola said: “The summation of the projection is APC is leading with 19 states, NDC with 10 states and ADC with 8 states.”

He, however, stressed that the figures were based on the political circumstances at the time of the assessment and should not be interpreted as a final election result.

“Let us caution that this result is presumed under a free and fair elections