Diesel prices surge 25.24% year-on-year in May 2025 as North-Central records highest regional costs

The average retail price of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) paid by Nigerian consumers rose sharply by 25.24% year-on-year, reaching ₦1,758.26 per litre in May 2025, up from ₦1,403.96 per litre in May 2024, according to the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The data, contained in the “Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel) Price Watch” for May 2025, also showed a month-on-month increase of 2.08%, with prices rising from ₦1,722.45 in April 2025.

The report highlights stark regional disparities in diesel pricing across Nigeria’s six geo-political zones.

North-Central emerged as the region with the highest average diesel price in May 2025 at ₦1,920.47, well above the national average.

Conversely, South-West residents paid the lowest average price at ₦1,553.19 per litre.

Breakdown of regional average prices:

North-West: ₦1,769.28

North-East: ₦1,767.21

South-East: ₦1,632.33

South-South: ₦1,857.19

State-by-State Analysis: Benue, Adamawa, Plateau Remain Costliest

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For the second consecutive month, Benue, Adamawa, and Plateau States topped the list of states with the highest diesel prices:

Benue State: ₦2,441.46

Adamawa State: ₦2,350.32

Plateau State: ₦2,201.52

At the other end of the spectrum, Kogi, Ondo, and Anambra States continued to enjoy the lowest prices in the country:

Ondo State: ₦1,318.40

Kogi State: ₦1,360.00

Anambra State: ₦1,361.02

“The consistency in price rankings across states suggests localized structural issues in distribution and logistics, particularly in the North-Central region,” said Engr. Goke Adewale, energy analyst at Nigeria Energy Outlook. “Diesel-dependent sectors such as manufacturing and logistics are likely to feel the strain more acutely in high-cost states.”

In April 2025, the national average diesel price stood at ₦1,722.45 — a 21.72% year-on-year increase from ₦1,415.06 in April 2024.

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The top and bottom states in April mirrored those of May, highlighting a consistent pricing pattern.

Interestingly, the surge in diesel prices comes against the backdrop of declining headline inflation. The NBS reported that Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped to 22.97% in May 2025, down from 23.71% in April, and significantly lower than 33.95% recorded in May 2024 — a 10.98 percentage point decrease year-on-year.

“The persistent diesel price hikes suggest sector-specific inflation, likely driven by supply chain inefficiencies, foreign exchange impacts, and high distribution costs,” said Dr. Zainab Salisu, a senior economist at the Centre for Development Studies. “While headline inflation is slowing, energy prices remain sticky due to import dependencies and weak infrastructure.”

As diesel prices continue their upward trend, concerns are growing over the impact on transportation costs, generator-powered businesses, and inflation transmission into consumer goods.

“Diesel is the lifeblood of logistics and small-scale manufacturing in Nigeria,” said Kola Adeniran, analyst at Vantage Capital Advisory. “Rising prices will erode margins and likely push up the cost of goods and services in the coming months.”

Analysts are urging the government to fast-track energy sector reforms, including investments in local refining, logistics infrastructure, and alternative energy solutions, to ease the burden on consumers and businesses.