Olusegun Odunewu

Nigeria’s FX turnover nearly doubles to $3.37bn as dollar trading rebounds By Segun Odunewu, Lagos Nigeria’s foreign exchange market recorded a sharp rebound in trading activity as dollar transactions nearly doubled to $3.37 billion in the week ended October 9, 2026, from $1.70 billion in the preceding week. Data from FMDQ showed that total foreign exchange turnover increased by 98.58 per cent, representing an additional $1.67 billion in transactions and reversing a 35.41 per cent decline recorded in the previous reporting week. The recovery was driven largely by spot transactions, which rose by 98.37 per cent to $3.24 billion from $1.63 billion, accounting for approximately 96 per cent of total turnover during the week. Spot transactions involve the purchase and sale of foreign currencies for near-immediate delivery and are commonly used by banks, businesses and other market participants to meet their foreign exchange needs. Forward transactions also recorded significant growth, increasing by 103.85 per cent to $131.95 million from $64.73 million in the preceding week. Despite the increase, forward transactions accounted for just 3.92 per cent of total turnover, underscoring the dominance of spot trading in the reported market activity. Average daily foreign exchange trading rose to $673.97 million from $424.24 million in the previous week. The latest turnover represents a recovery to levels recorded in September, when transactions reached $3.39 billion in the week ended September 11, before declining in subsequent reporting periods. However, the increase in trading volume does not necessarily indicate improved dollar availability or guarantee stability in the naira exchange rate. Commenting on the market outlook in its weekly economic and market update, Overview of Markets in the Week Ended 09 October 2026, Cordros Securities highlighted the importance of domestic and foreign currency inflows in sustaining liquidity. The investment firm identified domestic inflows from the Central Bank of Nigeria, individuals, non-bank corporates, and exporters and importers as important components of the foreign exchange market. It warned that the outlook for inflows would depend on the resilience of foreign portfolio participation and a recovery in domestic sources of foreign currency. “In the near term, the outlook for FX inflows will depend on the resilience of foreign portfolio participation and the recovery of domestic inflows,” Cordros Securities stated. The firm added that lower domestic yields and persistent geopolitical tensions could weaken the attractiveness of naira-denominated assets to foreign investors, potentially reducing portfolio inflows and putting pressure on foreign exchange liquidity. Similarly, the Head of Research at GTI Securities Limited, Abiodun Ogunniyi, said the rebound in turnover could reflect renewed activity by exporters, foreign portfolio investors, offshore investors repatriating funds and other participants supplying dollars through authorised dealers. He stressed that the composition of foreign currency supply would be crucial in determining whether the recovery could be sustained. According to Ogunniyi, export proceeds, foreign portfolio investments, diaspora remittances and foreign direct investments are among the sources that can contribute to foreign exchange supply, although they enter the market through different channels. “If the latest increase in turnover is supported by stronger and more consistent inflows, it could improve transactions between buyers and sellers,” he said. He, however, cautioned that sustained improvement would depend on whether inflows continued rather than being driven by temporary portfolio movements or isolated transactions. The latest rebound signals increased trading activity, but its implications for exchange rate stability will depend on the strength of foreign currency inflows, demand for dollars and broader economic conditions in the coming weeks. 77777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777 Zenith Bank’s H1 results highlight dividend strength, asset quality risks By Segun Odunewu, Lagos Zenith Bank Plc has increased its interim dividend by 20 per cent to N1.50 per share, despite a decline in profit after tax and gross earnings in the first half of 2026, as stronger fee-based income and improved credit-loss provisions helped cushion pressure on its financial performance. The bank’s audited half-year results for the period ended June 2026 showed that profit before tax rose marginally by 1.91 per cent to N637.60 billion from N625.63 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. However, profit after tax fell to N430.76 billion from N532.18 billion, while gross earnings declined by 24.63 per cent to N1.90 trillion, reflecting the impact of weaker trading income and higher tax expenses. The results present a mixed picture for investors, with the bank demonstrating resilience in some areas of its core banking operations while facing pressure on overall profitability. Net fee and commission income increased by 39.60 per cent to N178.77 billion, providing an important source of support as trading income swung from a gain of N467.79 billion in the first half of 2025 to a loss of N92.24 billion in the period under review. The reversal contributed to a 74.20 per cent decline in non-interest income to N158.16 billion. Net interest income, another major contributor to the bank’s earnings, fell by 7.41 per cent to N1.25 trillion from N1.35 trillion a year earlier. Tax expenses more than doubled to N206.84 billion from N93.45 billion, adding to the pressure on profit after tax despite the slight improvement in pre-tax earnings. From an analyst’s perspective, Zenith Bank’s results underscore the importance of distinguishing between recurring banking income and earnings influenced by volatile trading activities. The 39.60 per cent increase in net fee and commission income suggests that the bank is strengthening revenue from services beyond interest earned on loans and other assets. Such income can help diversify earnings, although its sustainability will depend on transaction volumes, customer activity and the bank’s ability to expand its service offerings. The sharp reversal in trading income, however, demonstrates the extent to which market-related activities can influence reported earnings. The marginal increase in profit before tax, alongside the substantial decline in profit after tax, suggests that underlying operating performance and bottom-line profitability are moving in different directions. The increase in dividend per share is a positive signal for shareholders, but investors will also need to assess whether future earnings can sustain higher distributions without weakening the bank’s capacity to fund growth, absorb losses and meet regulatory requirements. Zenith’s capital ratios provide some reassurance in this regard. Its capital adequacy ratio stood at 25.10 per cent, while its common equity tier-one ratio was 21.92 per cent. Zenith Bank’s total assets increased by 5.33 per cent to N32.65 trillion, while customer deposits stood at N26.35 trillion. Loans and advances amounted to N12.05 trillion. Its loan-to-deposit ratio of 45.73 per cent suggests potential capacity to expand lending, subject to credit demand, regulatory requirements and the bank’s risk appetite. The opportunity is significant as Nigerian banks enter a new phase following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recapitalisation programme, which reached its March 31, 2026 deadline. With stronger capital bases, lenders face pressure to demonstrate that the additional financial capacity can translate into productive lending, sustainable earnings and improved support for businesses and households. For Zenith, the challenge will be to convert its balance-sheet strength into higher-quality credit growth and more consistent revenue, rather than relying heavily on volatile market-related income. The bank recorded a significant reduction in impairment charges, which fell by 81.48 per cent to N141.12 billion from N762.05 billion in the first half of 2025. For income-focused investors, the higher interim dividend may improve the stock’s appeal. Investors focused on earnings growth, however, will likely look for evidence that the bank can reverse the decline in profit after tax and reduce its exposure to volatile trading income.

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Stories By Olusegun Odunewu

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