With Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election campaign season underway, economic policy is emerging as one of the major issues likely to shape the contest between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

The three political figures have advanced different approaches to tackling Nigeria’s long-standing challenges of inflation, weak productivity, unemployment, public debt, foreign-exchange pressures and the high cost of governance.

While Tinubu is defending the structural reforms introduced since 2023, Atiku has consistently advocated a stronger role for private capital and market liberalisation, while Obi’s economic philosophy has centred on moving Nigeria from consumption towards production.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled the 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections for February 20, 2027.

Tinubu: Structural Reforms and Fiscal Consolidation

President Tinubu’s economic programme has been built around major structural changes, including the removal of petrol subsidies, reforms to the foreign-exchange system and changes to Nigeria’s tax architecture.

The administration argues that the reforms were necessary to address fiscal imbalances and create a more sustainable economic foundation.

Tinubu has repeatedly defended the removal of the fuel subsidy, saying it was necessary to prevent further fiscal deterioration. The Presidency says the government is now focused on strengthening revenue collection, infrastructure, investment and social programmes while ensuring that the benefits of the reforms eventually reach households.

The government has also highlighted new tax reforms, increased revenue mobilisation, infrastructure spending and measures aimed at improving investment conditions.

However, the reforms have come with significant social costs. Inflation and the loss of purchasing power have remained major concerns for households, with Reuters reporting that the reforms have pleased investors while contributing to intense public dissatisfaction over the cost of living.

Atiku: Private Sector and Liberalisation

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has long advocated greater reliance on the private sector to drive economic growth.

His approach includes deregulation, stronger private-sector participation and reducing the government’s direct involvement in commercially oriented businesses.

Atiku’s record includes his role as chairman of the National Council on Privatisation during the 1999–2007 administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo. His supporters have continued to point to that experience in arguing for greater private-sector participation in the economy.

The broader privatisation model seeks to attract private capital into sectors where government-owned enterprises have struggled to deliver efficiently. Nigeria’s Bureau of Public Enterprises currently describes its mandate as including the privatisation of public enterprises and liberalisation of key economic sectors.

For Atiku, the central challenge would be ensuring that further liberalisation produces investment, jobs and improved services without transferring excessive costs to consumers.

Obi: Production Over Consumption

Peter Obi’s economic argument has centred on a different proposition: that Nigeria must increase domestic production, reduce waste and invest more heavily in productive sectors.

His 2023 Labour Party manifesto called for a transition from a consumption-driven economy to a production-centred one, with emphasis on agriculture, export-oriented industrialisation, infrastructure, technology and human-capital development. It also proposed greater access to finance for MSMEs, young people and women.

Obi has also argued that government borrowing should be directed towards productive investments rather than recurrent consumption, while advocating reductions in the cost of governance and stronger support for businesses.

His economic approach therefore places considerable emphasis on agriculture, manufacturing, small businesses and exports as engines of job creation and foreign-exchange earnings.

Three Approaches, One Major Test

Despite their differences, all three approaches face the same fundamental test: whether policies can translate into higher household incomes, more jobs, greater economic productivity and lower living costs.

Tinubu’s strategy depends heavily on sustaining structural reforms while cushioning their effects on vulnerable Nigerians. Atiku’s liberalisation model would have to demonstrate that increased private-sector participation can deliver broad-based growth. Obi’s production-led strategy would need to overcome Nigeria’s infrastructure, financing, security and fiscal constraints quickly enough to generate substantial economic gains.

The debate is therefore unlikely to be simply about which candidate promises the most attractive economic programme. It will increasingly centre on which approach can realistically be financed, implemented and sustained—and how quickly ordinary Nigerians can feel the results.

With the election approaching, economic performance under the Tinubu administration will inevitably form part of the electorate’s assessment of the APC’s bid for another term.

At the same time, Atiku and Obi will seek to persuade voters that alternative economic strategies can deliver better outcomes.

The contest could ultimately become a referendum on two questions: whether Nigerians believe the current reforms are beginning to produce sustainable benefits, and whether the opposition can present a credible alternative capable of addressing the country’s economic challenges without creating new ones.

Recent reporting by Reuters and AP also indicates that economic hardship, insecurity and the fragmented opposition are likely to be among the defining issues of the 2027 presidential contest.