Nigeria sheds Top importer status as Dangote refinery transforms Africa’s fuel market

Nigeria has officially lost its long-held status as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products, a significant shift confirmed by a new report from energy consultancy CITAC.

South Africa has now taken the lead in fuel imports, signaling a profound transformation in the continent’s fuel import dynamics, largely driven by increased output from Nigeria’s Dangote Petrochemical Refinery.

According to CITAC’s latest data for the first quarter of 2025, South Africa imported 4.2 million metric tonnes of refined fuel, surpassing Nigeria’s 3.1 million tonnes over the same period.

This change comes as the Dangote refinery, which commenced full-scale operations in early 2024, continues to drastically reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.

The 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery—the world’s largest single-train facility—has fundamentally altered product flows across the West African region.

Crude processing in sub-Saharan Africa surged by 77.8% year-on-year in 2024, rising from an average of 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels per day in 2024.

This substantial increase is overwhelmingly attributed to the operational output of the Dangote refinery.

CITAC projects Nigeria’s total refined product imports will fall to 6.4 million tonnes by the end of 2025, a figure less than half of South Africa’s estimated 15.5 million tonnes. The report highlights that output from Dangote has effectively displaced much of West Africa’s reliance on imported clean fuels since mid-2023, creating a new energy landscape.

This marks a historic shift for Nigeria, a country that—despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer for decades—has paradoxically relied almost entirely on fuel imports due to limited and poorly maintained domestic refining capacity.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s growing dependence on fuel imports is tied to a sharp decline in local refining capabilities. Since 2020, several of its key refineries have shut down due to a combination of industrial accidents, aging infrastructure, and chronic underinvestment.

As of now, more than 60% of South Africa’s fuel demand is met through imports, according to state-owned logistics company Transnet SOC Ltd.

The situation worsened significantly after the closure of Sapref—the country’s largest refinery and a joint venture between Shell and BP—in 2022.

Although the government acquired the facility in 2023 with ambitious plans to revive it, no clear restart timeline has been announced. “South Africa’s infrastructure is well developed, but its refining gap is increasingly attracting foreign fuel traders,” noted an industry executive involved in the Sapref transition, highlighting the lucrative opportunities this creates for international suppliers.

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The implications of Nigeria’s declining fuel import needs are far-reaching.

Analysts suggest it could significantly help stabilize the naira, ease pressure on critical foreign exchange reserves, and substantially reduce the government’s fuel subsidy burden, freeing up funds for other developmental projects.

Swiss-based fuel trader Mocoh is among the companies rapidly adapting to this new landscape. Once heavily reliant on supplying petrol to Nigeria via lucrative deals with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), the company has undergone a swift strategic shift in response to the changes brought by the Dangote refinery.

Mocoh has now strategically partnered with Dangote to export surplus fuel to neighboring West African markets such as Benin, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso.

However, competition in this evolving market remains intense.

Dangote has so far favored established global traders like Vitol, BP, and and Trafigura for major offtake deals, indicating a preference for large-scale, reliable partnerships.

Emerging players such as Atmin, backed by Afreximbank, are also actively entering the space, seeking to expand intra-African trade flows and capitalize on the new dynamics.

“Dangote is focused on flexibility and competitive pricing rather than exclusive deals,” Lassagne added. “Our goal is to remain agile and relevant in this evolving regional market.”