2027 Coalition: Atiku/Obi negotiation faces crisis of uncertainty of consensus building

The negotiation for coalition between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi to wrest power from incumbent President Bola Tinubu and the dominant All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections is seemingly generating apprehension of crisis of uncertainty of consensus building in the trade offs.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has lubricated the political machine of his partisan power bloc to negotiate with Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) for a formidable coalition to alter the power equation of the polity and unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Atiku/Obi, can they have consensus for a deal towards 2027?

The 2023 PDP presidential candidate had triggered the negotiation for broad coalition on wider spectrum in the belief that only when the opposition parties come together will they be able to defeat the APC in 2027.

Atiku, however, deployed his political simulation to make direct overtures to Peter Obi, LP 2023 presidential candidate for bi-modal alliance towards 2027. This does not, however, preclude negotiations involving other political leaders, like former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State, Babachir Lawal, and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, among others, but they are not in the presidential race.

Both Atiku and Obi are widely perceived to have big partisan stature in the political landscape of Nigeria. Their joint votes of over 12 million in the 2023 presidential election exceeded the votes of over 8 million with which incumbent President Bola Tinubu won the election. But they split before the polls; otherwise, their joint votes would have wrest power from the APC in 2023.

Tinubu encroaching on opposition to consolidate for 2027; awaiting the coalition.

Meanwhile, the bargaining has begun in earnest, and the horse trading is being taken to high altitude. However, there is emerging apprehension that pressures from supporters and followers may degenerate into a missing link, in the Atiku negotiation with Obi, of two crucial social indicators, which make a coalition works – sacrifice and ego. Who is willing to make sacrifice; step down for the presidential or vice presidential ticket? Both cannot have the presidential ticket at the same time.

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Beyond inter-polar coalitions in the formation of the political parties, the contemporary democratic dispensation in the country was built on the framework of coalition at the inchoate stage.

In the buildup to the 1999 general elections, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) formed a coalition with the All Peoples Party (APP) to confront the formidable Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Apparently, Dr. Ogbonanya Onu, APP presidential candidate, sacrificed his party ticket and stepped down for Olu Falae, presidential candidate of the AD; to contest with Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP in the 1999 presidential election. Obasanjo won.

Subsequently, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, in 2006, formed an alliance with Tinubu, then, Governor of Lagos State, against the PDP. Atiku took a faction of the PDP to form the Action Congress (AC) with Tinubu, who led the Alliance for Democracy (AD) into the AC for the 2007 elections.

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The PDP candidate, Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, won the 2007 presidential election.

After repeated unsuccessful contest for president from 2003, former President Muhammadu Buhari formed a coalition with Tinubu, the ANPP leaders and others. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) led by Buhari, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), led by Tinubu, the New Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP) led by Atiku, Saraki and others, the  ANPP, were all dissolved into the emergent All Progressives Congress (APC) in the buildup to the 2015 general elections.

At the time of the APC coalition, Tinubu’s ACN had become the leading opposition party in the National Assembly, having 18 senators, PDP defectors increased the number to 33; and 66 members in the House of Representatives, including 6 governors, among others.

The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) led by Buhari had 35 members in the House of Representatives and one Governor; while the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)    had 25 Reps members and two governors.

The APC was bolstered and reinforced by the defection of 5 the 7 PDP governors (G7) who were opposed to President Goodluck Jonathan being PDP presidential candidate for the 2015 elections.  The governors defected with several PDP stakeholders led by Abubakar Kawu Baraje, to the APC.

The 5 governors include Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State,  Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State, Murtala Nyako  of Adamawa State, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State and Magatakarda Wamakko of Sokoto State.

The 2 G7 members that stayed back in the PDP include governors Aliyu Babangida of Niger State, chairman of the G7 governors forum, and Sule Lamido of Adamawa State.

Other defectors that reinforced the APC include senators and House of Representatives members.

Besides contributing greater political assets to the emergent APC coalition, Tinubu sacrificed the party’s presidential ticket at the Party’s 2014 National Convention in Lagos, to the subsequent President, Buhari, who defeated Atiku, Saraki, Tambuwal and others at the primary.

While being the first successful big party coalition since 1999 democratic experience in the country, APC leaders had commenced negotiations and horse trading for the emergent coalition immediately after the 2011 general elections, and had sufficient time to conceive ideological fault line, develop acceptable template for political horse trading, consensus building and structures for elections.

The party successfully won the 2015 presidential election, defeating the hegemonic PDP, which had dominated the polity for 16 years.

Meanwhile, the new coalition movement towards 2027 has become dominated by inter-modal negotiation between Atiku and Obi. The earlier political calculations were that the coalition may adopt the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to sponsor candidates for the 2027 general elections.

However, a front line member of the coalition being negotiated, Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, in a media interaction on Wednesday, dismissed the adoption of the PDP by the coalition, saying that the PDP has a virus and no anti-biotic can cure it.

Lawal said that the coalition is considering either adopting one of the political parties, reorganize and strengthen it, or may register a new party for 2027. The SDP was sidelined for the fear that the party has been infiltrated by the APC.

There was insulation that the coalition has adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to sponsor candidates for elections in 2027.

However, the interim spokesman of the coalition, Salihu Lukman, former APC Vice Chairman, Northwest, refuted the report.

Lukman, in a statement on Thursday in Abuja, declared: “The public should disregard the story, as it is completely false. No such decision has been taken.

“Also false is the report that the coalition has adopted the ADC at its meeting of Tuesday, May 20, 2025.

“Unfortunately, there appear to be some mischief makers promoting and planting stories in the media with the clear aim of sowing seeds of discord among coalition leaders.

“The public and the media should please disregard all these mischievous stories.

“Once negotiations are concluded, a formal announcement will be made by the leaders of the coalition.”

While Atiku sustains negotiations with Obi for joint-ticket, the Obidients, reinvigorate ego politics, vehemently opposed to Obi becoming vice president to Atiku. They threaten to abandon Obi if he accepts such offer.

Meanwhile, Atiku has made relative sacrifice, promising to serve for one tenure and handover to Obi. Such offer is being threatened by the mutual agreement of the political elite to zone the 2027 presidential ticket to the South; this has remained a contentious issue in the polity.

The supporters and followers of Atiku and Obi have continued to remain adamant on their political principal being the presidential candidate in 2027 as the negotiations and trade off continue.