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#BBNaija – Efe, Bisola kick off their media tour [Photos]

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April 11, 2017

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IMF warns rising oil prices from US–Iran tensions could push global iInflation higher The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that the sustained surge in global oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions could significantly increase worldwide inflation and slow economic growth. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg on Saturday, the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the economic impact of the ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran could ripple across global markets if energy prices continue to climb. According to Georgieva, a sustained increase in energy prices could push global inflation up by about 40 basis points, while also weakening economic growth. “What I can tell you from prior experience is that if we are to have an increase of energy prices by 10% and that stays for some time, stays for a year, inflation would go up by 40 basis points, growth will slow down somewhere between 0.1% and 0.2%,” she said. She stressed that such developments would require policymakers worldwide to prepare for the economic consequences. “In other words, it is an impact that has to be taken into account. So policymakers have to brace for it,” Georgieva added. The IMF’s warning comes as hostilities between the United States and Iran continue to intensify, raising fears of disruptions to oil supply from the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly one-third of global crude production. Global oil markets have reacted sharply to the crisis, with the benchmark Brent Crude climbing above $92 per barrel on Friday after recording weekly gains of more than 27 percent. Market analysts say the surge reflects growing concerns that the conflict could threaten critical shipping routes in the Gulf region, particularly the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway handles nearly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply, making it one of the most important chokepoints in global energy trade. Beyond rising energy prices, Georgieva warned that geopolitical uncertainty could also trigger currency volatility, especially in emerging economies. She noted that several emerging market currencies are already facing depreciation pressures, which could worsen debt burdens for countries that borrowed heavily in U.S. dollars. “We see emerging market currencies depreciating. For those of them that borrowed in dollars, it makes the service of that more expensive,” she explained. However, she added that weaker currencies could provide a modest advantage to export-driven economies by improving the competitiveness of their goods in international markets. The IMF chief also urged governments to exercise caution in fiscal spending as uncertainty in global markets grows. “For the fiscal authorities in countries, I just want to repeat what we have been saying time and again: be very careful how you deploy your bundles,” Georgieva said. She emphasised the need for countries to rebuild fiscal buffers during stable periods, allowing them to better manage economic shocks when crises arise. Energy market participants warn that oil prices could climb even higher if the geopolitical crisis persists. Recent missile attacks reportedly targeting energy facilities in Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have raised concerns about tightening supply in the global market. Major financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have warned that oil prices could surpass $100 per barrel and potentially climb to $150 by the end of summer if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist. Industry experts say the global energy market may still be underestimating the risks associated with a prolonged closure of the strategic shipping route. Bob McNally, a former White House official and president of Rapidan Energy Group, noted that the market is still adjusting to the potential duration and severity of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, physical energy markets are already showing signs of strain, with prices for diesel and jet fuel rising sharply due to refinery cuts in parts of the Middle East and Asia. Analysts say the growing geopolitical risk premium is now being priced into global crude benchmarks as traders factor in the possibility of prolonged tensions and supply shocks in one of the world’s most critical oil-producing regions.

IMF warns rising oil prices from US–Iran tensions could push global iInflation higher The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that the sustained surge in global oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions could significantly increase worldwide inflation and slow economic growth. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg on Saturday, the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the economic impact of the ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran could ripple across global markets if energy prices continue to climb. According to Georgieva, a sustained increase in energy prices could push global inflation up by about 40 basis points, while also weakening economic growth. “What I can tell you from prior experience is that if we are to have an increase of energy prices by 10% and that stays for some time, stays for a year, inflation would go up by 40 basis points, growth will slow down somewhere between 0.1% and 0.2%,” she said. She stressed that such developments would require policymakers worldwide to prepare for the economic consequences. “In other words, it is an impact that has to be taken into account. So policymakers have to brace for it,” Georgieva added. The IMF’s warning comes as hostilities between the United States and Iran continue to intensify, raising fears of disruptions to oil supply from the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly one-third of global crude production. Global oil markets have reacted sharply to the crisis, with the benchmark Brent Crude climbing above $92 per barrel on Friday after recording weekly gains of more than 27 percent. Market analysts say the surge reflects growing concerns that the conflict could threaten critical shipping routes in the Gulf region, particularly the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway handles nearly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply, making it one of the most important chokepoints in global energy trade. Beyond rising energy prices, Georgieva warned that geopolitical uncertainty could also trigger currency volatility, especially in emerging economies. She noted that several emerging market currencies are already facing depreciation pressures, which could worsen debt burdens for countries that borrowed heavily in U.S. dollars. “We see emerging market currencies depreciating. For those of them that borrowed in dollars, it makes the service of that more expensive,” she explained. However, she added that weaker currencies could provide a modest advantage to export-driven economies by improving the competitiveness of their goods in international markets. The IMF chief also urged governments to exercise caution in fiscal spending as uncertainty in global markets grows. “For the fiscal authorities in countries, I just want to repeat what we have been saying time and again: be very careful how you deploy your bundles,” Georgieva said. She emphasised the need for countries to rebuild fiscal buffers during stable periods, allowing them to better manage economic shocks when crises arise. Energy market participants warn that oil prices could climb even higher if the geopolitical crisis persists. Recent missile attacks reportedly targeting energy facilities in Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have raised concerns about tightening supply in the global market. Major financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have warned that oil prices could surpass $100 per barrel and potentially climb to $150 by the end of summer if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist. Industry experts say the global energy market may still be underestimating the risks associated with a prolonged closure of the strategic shipping route. Bob McNally, a former White House official and president of Rapidan Energy Group, noted that the market is still adjusting to the potential duration and severity of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, physical energy markets are already showing signs of strain, with prices for diesel and jet fuel rising sharply due to refinery cuts in parts of the Middle East and Asia. Analysts say the growing geopolitical risk premium is now being priced into global crude benchmarks as traders factor in the possibility of prolonged tensions and supply shocks in one of the world’s most critical oil-producing regions.

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