Lagos Danfo reform: Experts call for 20,000 buses, demand-based routes

Lagos State is moving to overhaul its informal commercial bus sector through the Bus Industry Transition Programme (BITP), but transport experts say the success of the reform will depend on more than replacing cash fares with digital payments or bringing danfo operators under a franchise system.

The programme, being implemented by the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA), seeks to integrate informal operators into a regulated framework covering routes, fares, service standards and operations.

The state government, LAMATA, the Nigeria Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) and the Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria (RTEAN) have signed a memorandum of understanding to guide the transition.

Under the model, transport unions are expected to adopt cooperative structures through which their members can operate as franchisees, while LAMATA retains regulatory control.

The rollout will begin on selected routes, including eight planned Quality Bus Corridors. Four are currently under construction: Iju Ishaga–Abule Egba, Ketu–Alapere–Akanimodo, Iyana Iba–Igando–Iyana Ipaja and Ojuelegba–Lawanson–Cele.

But experts warn that formalising operators will not automatically translate into better public transport.

Tonami Playman, an independent researcher specialising in African transit systems, said the critical issue would be the design and enforcement of the franchise framework.

“Going to a franchise system does not guarantee better service,” Playman said, stressing the need for clear agreements containing measurable service standards, incentives for good performance and penalties for failure.

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He warned that operators should not be allowed to disrupt services without consequences, arguing that commuters must be protected from being held hostage by franchise operators.

Can Lagos Provide Enough Buses?

Perhaps the biggest test is whether the new system will have enough buses to meet passenger demand.

Playman estimates that Lagos would need between 15,000 and 20,000 high-capacity buses, capable of carrying roughly 80 to 150 passengers each, for an effective bus network.

He said simply increasing the fleet would not be enough without redesigning routes and determining service frequency according to passenger demand.

“Route allocation and service frequency should be determined by diligently studying traffic demand corridors and figuring out the most efficient way to integrate the bus routes into the larger transport network,” he said.

Tosin Adefeso, a geospatial technologist specialising in road and marine transport, also stressed the importance of accurate data.

According to him, population growth, urbanisation and rural-urban migration have significantly changed the spatial distribution of passenger demand across Lagos.

He recommended updated land-use and passenger-demand mapping across the state’s five divisions to determine where buses are most needed and how routes should be designed.

Dr Olayinka Agunloye, an Associate Professor of Transport Planning and Logistics at the University of Lagos, similarly called for detailed transport and traffic surveys before implementation.

He said Lagos needs reliable data on vehicle availability, maintenance, passenger demand and scheduling to determine the number of buses and frequency required on each corridor.

The reform is expected to address some of the longstanding problems associated with informal transport, including safety, driver behaviour, cash handling and unpredictable operations.

Agunloye said the programme could help tackle “safety and security; multiple payment points; disturbing driver’s attitude; limited operators income among others.”

For commuters, however, the ultimate measure will be whether they spend less time waiting for buses, enjoy safer journeys and pay predictable and affordable fares.

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Emmanuel Azubuike, a regular Lagos commuter, said his experiences with danfos have included poor vehicle conditions, conductors’ behaviour, unpredictable fares and long waiting times.

“I honestly dread entering danfos buses in Lagos,” he said, identifying safety and driver behaviour as his biggest concerns.

Ahmed Muhammed, who uses both danfos and BRT, said BRT offers better comfort, safety and fare-payment reliability but can also involve lengthy waits during peak periods.

“The waiting time is much more than the Danfos, BRT is more reliable because payment of fares is digitalized, comfortability and safety of BRT is unmatched,” he said.

Agunloye recommended an intermodal transport master plan integrating franchise buses with BRT, rail and waterways.

Adefeso said BRT could continue serving major trunk routes, while smaller buses connect communities and roads that cannot efficiently accommodate larger vehicles.

He also warned that commercially driven operators could neglect less profitable routes, making government incentives necessary to maintain transport coverage in underserved areas.

The experts’ assessment is that BITP’s real test will not be the number of danfo operators converted into franchisees, but whether Lagos can match fleet size, routes, frequency and fares with actual commuter demand.