Opta SuperComputer predicts final four for 2026 World Cup

The Opta SuperComputer has predicted that France, Spain, Argentina and England will advance to the semi-finals as the 2026 FIFA World Cup enters its quarter-final stage.

According to Opta’s latest projections, France are expected to overcome Morocco, while Spain are tipped to defeat Belgium. Argentina are forecast to beat Switzerland, with England predicted to edge past Norway to complete the final four.

Opta also ranks France as the strongest favourites to lift the World Cup trophy, giving Didier Deschamps’ side a 27.32% chance of winning the tournament.

Reigning European champions Spain have the second-highest probability of becoming world champions at 21.33%.

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Defending world champions Argentina have been assigned a 17.28% chance of retaining the title, while England’s chances of ending their long wait for World Cup glory stand at 16.48%.

If the predictions prove accurate, Norway, Switzerland, Morocco and Belgium will all see their World Cup campaigns end in the quarter-finals.

The projections are based on Opta’s SuperComputer simulations, which use team strength, historical data and statistical modelling to estimate the likelihood of match outcomes and tournament progression.