2027 Coaliton: Atiku/Obi’s negotiation faces crisis of uncertainty of consensus building

The negotiation between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)  and Peter Obi, 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP),  to form a formidable coalition against the dominant All Progress Congress (APC) in 2027, may paradoxically, be facing crisis of uncertainty of consensus building from the inchoate stage.

Apparently, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has lubricated the political machine of his partisan power bloc to negotiate with Peter Obi for an alliance to alter the power equation of the polity, wrest power from the APC, and unseat President Bola Tinubu, in the build up to the 2027 general elections.

Atiku/Obi, can they have consensus for a deal in 2027?

Initially, Atiku has been leading negotiations for opposition coalition on wider spectrum, in his belief that only a coalition of opposition political parties can defeat the APC in 2027.

However, Atiku adopted the political simulation for narrower concrete bargaining with Peter Obi for bi-modal coalition, though including other political leaders. Both Atiku and Obi have big partisan stature in the political landscape of Nigeria. Their votes put together in the 2023 presidential election exceeded the votes with which incumbent President Bola Tinubu won the election. But they split before the polls; otherwise, their joint votes of over 12 million would have wrest power from the APC, which had over 8 million in 2023.

Meanwhile, the bargaining begun in earnest, and the horse trading is being taken to high altitude. The negotiations between Atiku and Obi camps have been generating apprehension of a missing link over two crucial factors imperative to the formation of a coalition – sacrifice and ego. Who steps down for the presidential or vice presidential ticket? Both cannot have the presidential ticket at the same time.

Tinubu encroaching deep into opposition enclave to consolidate for 2027; in wait of the coalition

Beyond aggregation of inter-polar coalitions in the formation of the political parties, the contemporary democratic dispensation in the country was built on the framework of coalition at the inchoate stage.

In the buildup to the 1999 general elections, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) went into alliance with the All Peoples Party (APP) to confront the formidable Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Apparently, Dr. Ogbonanya Onu, APP presidential candidate, sacrificed his party’s ticket and stepped down for Olu Falae, presidential candidate of the AD; to contest with Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP in the 1999 presidential election. Obasanjo won.

Subsequently, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, in 2006, formed an alliance with Tinubu, then, Governor of Lagos State, against the PDP. Atiku took a faction of the PDP to form the Action Congress (AC) with Tinubu, who led and dissolved the Alliance for Democracy (AD) into the AC.

The PDP candidate, Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, won the 2007 presidential election.

After repeated unsuccessful contest for president from 2003, former President Muhammadu Buhari formed a coalition with Tinubu, the ANPP leaders and others.

Five members of the G7, seven PDP governors opposed to Jonathan’s presidential ticket, were led to the APC by Atiku and others, to reinforce the emerging opposition coalition against the dominant PDP in 2014, preparatory to the 2015 elections.

The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) led by Buhari, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), led by Tinubu, New Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP), led by Atiku, Bukola Saraki and others; and the ANPP, were all dissolved into the emergent All Progressives Congress (APC) in the buildup to the 2015 general elections.

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At the time of the APC coalition, Tinubu’s ACN had become the leading opposition party in the National Assembly, having 18 senators and 66 members in the House of Representatives, including 6 governors, among others.

The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), led by Buhari, had 35 members in the House of Representatives and  one Governor; while the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) had 25 Reps members and one governor.

The nPDP members subsequently, increased the number of APC lawmakers to the majority in the federal legislature.

Besides contributing greater political assets to the emergent APC coalition, Tinubu sacrificed the party’s presidential ticket for the 2015 general elections at the APC National Convention in 2014 in Lagos to the emergent President, Buhari; who defeated Atiku, Saraki and others at the presidential primary.

While being the first successful big parties coalition since the 1999 democratic experience in the country, APC leaders commenced negotiations and horse trading for the emergent party immediately after the 2011 general elections, and had sufficient time to conceive ideological fault line, develop acceptable template for political horse trading, consensus building, and structures for elections.

The party successfully won the 2015 presidential election, defeating the hegemonic PDP, which had dominated the polity for 16 years.

Meanwhile, the new coalition movement towards 2027 has become dominated by inter-modal negotiation between Atiku and Obi; though, former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State, Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, among others, are also involved in the coalition movement but not in the presidential race. The earlier political calculations were that the coalition may adopt the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to sponsor candidates for the 2027 general elections.

However, a front line member of the coalition being negotiated, Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation in the Buhari administration, in a media interaction, dismissed the adoption of the PDP for the coalition in 2027.

Lawal emphasized that the PDP has incurable virus, noting that no anti-biotic can cure the virus infesting the PDP. Thus, the PDP is ruled out, implying that Atiku may defect from the PDP before the 2027 elections.

Though Lawal did not specify the party platform the coalition intends to use in 2027, he emphasized that the coalition is considering adopting any of the parties or form a new political party to sponsor candidates in 2027.  The SDP is perceived to have been infiltrated by the APC.

There are insinuations that the coalition is considering or has adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for 2027.

However, the interim spokesman of the coalition, Salihu Lukman, former Vice Chairman, North West of the APC, in a statement on Thursday in Abuja, refuted reports that the coalition has adopted the ADC for the 2027 general elections.

According to Lukman, “… there appear to be some mischief makers promoting and planting stories in the media with the clear aim of sowing seeds of discord among coalition leaders.

“The public and the media should please disregard all these mischievous stories.

“Once negotiations are concluded, a formal announcement will be made by the leaders of the copalition.”

Investigation by National Daily Newspaper, however, found that the new coalition may have run out of requisite time-frame to form a new political party for the 2027 elections; may encounter crisis of limited time frame to propagate the ideological leaning or fault line of the new movement, develop proper political structures, among others to market the new party, the leaders and candidates to the electorates.

More importantly, the Obidients are already vehemently opposed to the suggestion that Peter Obi should vice presidential candidate while Atiku should be the presidential candidate in the emerging coalition. The politics of ego is already at play, both political leaders are already under pressures from their followers to stand for the president, and  may be unwilling to make sacrifice, as they are under threats from loyalists not to step down for the other.

Atiku had made marginal sacrifice of offering to serve one tenure, but again, the zoning of the presidential ticket to the south for the 2027 elections remains contentious in the polity.

There is an overarching conception that Atiku and Obi have high political capital, with cornucopia of loyalists, supporters and followers that are capable of altering the power equation of the polity and, hypothetically, turn the table against the incumbent President Tinubu and the APC.

Meanwhile, the wave of defections has tentatively increased the stature of the APC in the polity, seemingly diminishing the opposition.

Some stakeholders in the polity have expressed the view that the political capital of Atiku and Obi will only be valuable if both leaders respond positively to the stimulus of ego and sacrifice, as was the case of Tinubu and Buhari at the APC National Convention in Lagos for the 2015 elections.

National Daily Newspaper will bring you updates on the negotiations of the new coalition and the Atiku/Obi horse trading in subsequent reports.