Economist faults Tinubu’s $75 oil price benchmark in Nigeria’s proposed N47.9trn 2025 budget

Bismark Rewane, Executive Director of Financial Derivatives Company, has expressed reservations about Nigeria’s 2025 budget proposal, highlighting that the $75 per barrel crude oil price benchmark is unrealistic given current global economic conditions.

Speaking in an interview on Channels Television on Friday, Rewane emphasized that a lower benchmark would provide more fiscal flexibility.

The Federal Executive Council recently unveiled the proposed N47.9 trillion budget for 2025, which set crucial assumptions including an oil production rate of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) and an exchange rate pegged at N1,400 per dollar.

The $75 per barrel oil price target drew significant attention amid shifting economic forecasts and geopolitical uncertainties.

Rewane suggested that the benchmark should be adjusted to approximately $65 per barrel, especially in light of potential global economic shifts, including the unexpected re-emergence of Donald Trump as U.S. President-Elect and other macroeconomic pressures.

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He argued that a more conservative oil price would create a fiscal cushion for the government.

“The budget benchmark for oil price must be brought down near $65 per barrel so that there will be some headroom,” Rewane stated.

He noted, however, that despite this concern, the overall budget plan still has the potential to support macroeconomic stability if executed properly. “Generally speaking, the budget is something that can be useful and can be worked with to achieve macroeconomic stability in 2025,” he added.

His comments align with wider debates on the sustainability of revenue projections amid volatile oil markets and fluctuating global demand. The proposed benchmark also raises questions about how Nigeria plans to navigate economic uncertainties while balancing ambitious fiscal targets with practical financial safeguards.