Nigeria Needs 7–10% growth to hit $1trn GDP target – Minister warns

Nigeria’s Minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment, John Owan Enoh, has warned that the country must grow its economy by 7–10% annually if it is to achieve President Bola Tinubu’s $1 trillion GDP target.

Enoh, who spoke at a press briefing ahead of the West Africa Industrialisation, Manufacturing & Trade Summit & Exhibition (IMT) 2025, said the current growth rate of around 3% is grossly inadequate. He stressed that industrialisation remains the only viable pathway to sustainable prosperity and job creation.

“With our population projected to exceed 400 million in the coming years, what are we going to do with that population if we don’t have industries to absorb them?” Enoh asked.

The Minister revealed that a new national industrial policy is being finalised and will be validated on September 4, noting that the policy will focus on reviving moribund sectors like textiles, boosting manufacturing, and encouraging value addition.

Enoh highlighted recent government moves to discourage raw material exports, including the temporary ban on shea nut exports, which is expected to generate $300 million annually by stimulating local processing.

He added that the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC) has also proposed legislation requiring a minimum of 30% value addition before any raw material can be exported.

“The new industrial code will create a framework for reviving industries, addressing skills gaps, and positioning Nigeria for global competitiveness,” Enoh said.

Economic analysts say the minister’s warning underscores the urgency of deep structural reforms. Dr. Bismarck Rewane, economist and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company, told reporters that the minister was “absolutely correct,” but stressed that policy consistency would determine success.

“Nigeria can only achieve 7–10% growth if we fix power, enforce infrastructure upgrades, and ensure policies like the shea export ban are sustained beyond political cycles,” Rewane said.

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Prof. Sarah Anyanwu, development economist at the University of Abuja, argued that Nigeria’s challenge is not just industrialisation but also weak institutions.

“Industrial growth is impossible without tackling corruption, improving ease of doing business, and securing investment. Investors need certainty, not policy flip-flops,” she noted.

Meanwhile, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said industrialisation will require a serious scale-up of MSME financing.

“Micro and small businesses account for most jobs, but they lack credit and infrastructure. Without deliberate support, industrialisation will remain a slogan,” Yusuf said.

The upcoming West Africa IMT Summit, themed “Accelerating West Africa’s Sustainable Industrial Revolution for Economic Prosperity,” will gather government officials, investors, and industry leaders in Lagos.

Wemimo Oyelana, Country Director of dmg Nigeria Events, organisers of the summit, said the event will “create an open space for stakeholders to build practical solutions for manufacturing growth, trade expansion, and leveraging AfCFTA opportunities.”

Vice President Kashim Shettima, who recently confirmed Tinubu’s approval of the six-month shea nut export ban, said the policy aims to “protect and grow Nigeria’s shea industry while boosting value chain revenues.”