El-Rufai’s political gamble falters as SDP bid fails to gain ground in North-west

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, finds himself at a critical political impasse just two months after his dramatic departure from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and subsequent defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Despite lofty ambitions of uniting opposition forces under a new political banner, El-Rufai’s efforts to reposition himself as a national opposition figure appear to be floundering.

On March 10, 2025, El-Rufai publicly resigned from the APC, citing a deepening “misalignment between his values and the direction of the party.”

His defection to the SDP was framed as the beginning of a bold new movement to challenge the ruling party ahead of the 2027 general elections.

“Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and bye-elections between now and 2027, by the Grace of God,” El-Rufai said at the time.

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However, two months on, sources say the political momentum El-Rufai had hoped to generate has not materialised. His overtures to prominent politicians across the North-West have largely been rebuffed, and the SDP continues to lack any meaningful structure in Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara States.

According to insider accounts, El-Rufai made “frantic efforts” to recruit influential figures in the region, including sitting governors, senators, and federal lawmakers. But none have shown interest.

“He reached out to key players—governors, senators, even state assembly members—but not a single one has joined him,” said a source familiar with the discussions. “He was the first to approach Senators Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki in Kebbi, but they all turned him down. Worse, they chose to return to the APC instead.”

El-Rufai also reportedly made a failed bid to bring the Governor of Nasarawa State into the SDP fold, further deepening the perception that his movement is struggling for credibility. “People simply don’t see the SDP led by El-Rufai as a viable alternative at this point,” another political analyst commented.

At the national level, the SDP’s presence remains marginal, with only two members in the National Assembly: Senator Godiya Akwashiki (Nasarawa North) and Hon. Abubakar Sarki Dahiru (Nasarawa Lafia/Obi Federal Constituency).

Yet, El-Rufai had hoped to leverage his influence to build a broader coalition—something that now appears increasingly unlikely.

Adding to his woes is the perception among some in the North that the SDP still carries the legacy of President Bola Tinubu, who was elected as Lagos West Senator under its platform in 1992.

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“That belief is making many politicians suspicious of the party. It’s a hard sell for El-Rufai,” another insider remarked.

Some even view El-Rufai’s move as potentially deceptive. “There’s a perception that he’s not genuinely in opposition—that he’s still aligned with Tinubu behind the scenes. The trust deficit is huge,” said a political source in Kaduna.

Frustration is reportedly mounting in El-Rufai’s camp as his options dwindle. With bridges to the APC already burned, and limited traction in his new party, the former governor is said to be weighing a possible return to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—the platform that originally launched his public service career.

Sources revealed that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar recently met with El-Rufai in Abuja, encouraging him to return to the PDP. However, El-Rufai instead invited Atiku to join him in the SDP, expressing doubts over the PDP’s stability, especially amid ongoing tensions with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, whom he accused of trying to destroy the party from within. The meeting ended without agreement.

“He’s boxed in,” the source said. “Moving forward with the SDP feels like pushing a dead horse. But going back to APC is another battle entirely. The PDP remains an option, but it would be a humbling return.”

At present, the most high-profile individual El-Rufai has managed to bring into his SDP camp is comedian Obinna Simon, popularly known as MC Tagwaye, famed for impersonating former President Muhammadu Buhari. While popular in entertainment circles, Tagwaye’s political influence is negligible.

“Convincing a comedian is not the same as convincing political leaders. It shows how bad things are,” another insider commented.

El-Rufai’s current isolation is rooted in his fallout with President Tinubu after the 2023 elections. Despite backing Tinubu’s campaign and playing a significant role in consolidating northern support, El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination was blocked following an adverse security report—a move that left him feeling betrayed.

“That moment marked the beginning of his political exile. He believed Tinubu didn’t do enough to protect him,” a source in Kebbi explained.

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His reputation in the South remains tarnished, especially among Christian communities, due to his vocal support for the Muslim-Muslim ticket and controversial religious remarks during the 2023 elections. The resentment still lingers, further limiting his appeal across the country.

“El-Rufai is seen as too polarising. That’s why his SDP message isn’t catching fire, especially in southern states,” said Adamu Maiyama, an APC chieftain from Kebbi.