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Seven northern states at risk on outbreak of war in Niger

Published

3 years ago

on

August 7, 2023

By

Sunday Odibashi

Seven northern states at risk over war in Niger

Seven border states have been identified to be at high risk in Northern Nigeria if the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should confront the military regime in Niger Republic in a war to restore ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

The seven border states with Niger Republic were identified to include Borno, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara.

There were identified to have “a 1,608 kilometres long border with five regions in the Niger Republic.”

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Related Topics:ECOWAS Niger Republic

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Vote-buying remains a major concern One of the strongest warnings from Osun was the continued presence of vote-buying and voter inducement. Yiaga Africa said the results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) were consistent with its independent statistical projections, but cautioned that this did not remove concerns about the integrity of voters' choices amid reports of vote-buying and inducement. The concern is particularly significant ahead of 2027, when political competition will take place nationwide and involve presidential, National Assembly and state-level contests. The International Republican Institute (IRI), following a pre-election assessment mission conducted in August, identified monetised political competition, election-related violence, insecurity and declining public confidence in INEC among the structural challenges facing the 2027 elections. IRI recommended stronger investigation and prosecution of vote-buying and voter inducement, urging INEC, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and security agencies to act on credible allegations. Technology improves transparency — but has limits The Osun election also demonstrated how electoral technology can improve transparency. INEC's electronic transmission of polling-unit results through the IReV platform provided observers and members of the public with a mechanism to monitor uploaded results. Yiaga Africa subsequently said the official results were consistent with its independent statistical estimates, describing the outcome as evidence that the announced results reflected the ballots counted at polling units. However, technical problems with BVAS were reported during voting. CDD said difficulties involving biometric verification and slow processing occurred in several LGAs, including Irepodun, Ejigbo, Obokun, Osogbo, Olorunda, Ola Oluwa, Ede North and Ede South. These problems underline the need for INEC to ensure that electoral technology is not only available but also reliable, properly tested and supported by effective backup systems. Security remains another test for 2027 Although voting was generally peaceful, isolated incidents of violence and disruption were reported during the Osun poll. CDD called for security agencies to maintain political neutrality, investigate reported incidents and protect voters regardless of their political affiliation. IRI has similarly warned that insecurity and election-related violence could undermine meaningful political participation in 2027. Its assessment noted that more than 81 election-related violent incidents had been recorded in Osun in the year preceding the governorship election, with violence increasing as Election Day approached. The institute urged security agencies to identify high-risk areas early and develop location-specific plans to prevent intimidation, disruption and attacks on electoral participants. Osun offers lessons ahead of 2027 Despite the challenges, observers say the Osun election also provides evidence that improvements in election administration can produce positive results. Yiaga Africa's assessment found that INEC and security agencies largely passed the test of conducting the election, while its independent verification indicated that the official results accurately reflected the ballots counted at polling units. The challenge ahead is to build on those gains while addressing the weaknesses exposed during the election. For INEC, that means improving BVAS reliability, strengthening result-transmission and collation procedures and maintaining clear communication with voters and political parties. For security agencies, it means preventing electoral violence and ensuring that investigations and prosecutions are not selective. Political parties also face pressure to take greater responsibility for the conduct of their candidates, agents and supporters, particularly over voter inducement and intimidation. A bigger test awaits in 2027 The central lesson from Osun may be that a technically transparent election is not automatically the same as a completely free election. Electronic transmission can make results easier to monitor, but technology cannot by itself prevent voters from being offered money, threatened or pressured before they cast their ballots. IRI's latest assessment similarly stressed that the credibility of the 2027 elections will depend not only on technical administration but also on security, consistent application of electoral rules, timely communication and public confidence in INEC. With Nigeria's 2027 general elections scheduled for January 16, 2027, the Osun experience provides both a warning and an opportunity: the country has made progress in electoral transparency, but vote-buying, insecurity and declining trust must be confronted before they are magnified across a nationwide election.

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Vote-buying remains a major concern One of the strongest warnings from Osun was the continued presence of vote-buying and voter inducement. Yiaga Africa said the results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) were consistent with its independent statistical projections, but cautioned that this did not remove concerns about the integrity of voters' choices amid reports of vote-buying and inducement. The concern is particularly significant ahead of 2027, when political competition will take place nationwide and involve presidential, National Assembly and state-level contests. The International Republican Institute (IRI), following a pre-election assessment mission conducted in August, identified monetised political competition, election-related violence, insecurity and declining public confidence in INEC among the structural challenges facing the 2027 elections. IRI recommended stronger investigation and prosecution of vote-buying and voter inducement, urging INEC, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and security agencies to act on credible allegations. Technology improves transparency — but has limits The Osun election also demonstrated how electoral technology can improve transparency. INEC's electronic transmission of polling-unit results through the IReV platform provided observers and members of the public with a mechanism to monitor uploaded results. Yiaga Africa subsequently said the official results were consistent with its independent statistical estimates, describing the outcome as evidence that the announced results reflected the ballots counted at polling units. However, technical problems with BVAS were reported during voting. CDD said difficulties involving biometric verification and slow processing occurred in several LGAs, including Irepodun, Ejigbo, Obokun, Osogbo, Olorunda, Ola Oluwa, Ede North and Ede South. These problems underline the need for INEC to ensure that electoral technology is not only available but also reliable, properly tested and supported by effective backup systems. Security remains another test for 2027 Although voting was generally peaceful, isolated incidents of violence and disruption were reported during the Osun poll. CDD called for security agencies to maintain political neutrality, investigate reported incidents and protect voters regardless of their political affiliation. IRI has similarly warned that insecurity and election-related violence could undermine meaningful political participation in 2027. Its assessment noted that more than 81 election-related violent incidents had been recorded in Osun in the year preceding the governorship election, with violence increasing as Election Day approached. 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For security agencies, it means preventing electoral violence and ensuring that investigations and prosecutions are not selective. Political parties also face pressure to take greater responsibility for the conduct of their candidates, agents and supporters, particularly over voter inducement and intimidation. A bigger test awaits in 2027 The central lesson from Osun may be that a technically transparent election is not automatically the same as a completely free election. Electronic transmission can make results easier to monitor, but technology cannot by itself prevent voters from being offered money, threatened or pressured before they cast their ballots. IRI's latest assessment similarly stressed that the credibility of the 2027 elections will depend not only on technical administration but also on security, consistent application of electoral rules, timely communication and public confidence in INEC. With Nigeria's 2027 general elections scheduled for January 16, 2027, the Osun experience provides both a warning and an opportunity: the country has made progress in electoral transparency, but vote-buying, insecurity and declining trust must be confronted before they are magnified across a nationwide election.

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