Another governorship election is due in 2023 but from a political analytic perspective, it does not look like the current Lagos governor will be returning to his seat for three reasons.

EndSars Protest

The EndSars protest that took place in Nigeria in late 2020 turned out to be a huge stain on the reputation of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu. While the protest was a national reaction from Nigerians, Lagos became its epicentre.

The alleged shooting of protesters in Lekki turned out to be a huge cloud over Lagos with the governor being accused by youths of sanctioning it.

While the governor has denied the allegation, it has not seemed to have gone away and this may likely affect his political image in 2023. Some of the protesters feel the governor could have done more to protect the citizens.

The Tinubu factor

The same way Asiwaju Bola Tinubu played a significant role in the emergence of Sanwo-Olu as governor is also the same way he has the ability to determine his political fate. History however points to the fact that Tinubu does not seem to favour double terms. Babatunde Fashola’s double term was an exception rather than the norm and perhaps due to his extraordinarily brilliant performance. In Sanwo-Olu’s case, it doesn’t seem like he has performed to the level of Fashola.

APC gubernatorial agreement

There is a claim that there is an agreement in the APC that the deputy governor, Femi Hamzat, would succeed Sanwo-Olu as governor. If this is true, then it will come as no surprise if the current governor willingly bows out of office. Recall that Hamzat too dropped out of the APC gubernatorial election which paved the way for Sanwo-Olu’s victory. If such an agreement is in place, Sanwo-Olu may just be another one-term governor.