An estimated 34.7 million Nigerians are projected to face acute food insecurity during the peak of the 2026 lean season between June and August, according to the latest Cadre Harmonisé food security analysis released by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP).

The report indicates that while concerns over hunger remain severe, approximately 15 per cent of Nigeria’s estimated population of more than 230 million people is expected to experience crisis-level food insecurity during the period, rather than the higher figures circulating on social media.

According to the analysis, about 27.2 million people are already experiencing food shortages classified as “Crisis” or worse, with an additional 7.5 million Nigerians expected to fall into the same category as household food stocks diminish ahead of the main harvest season.

The report also highlighted the plight of more than 650,000 internally displaced persons in conflict-affected states, while over 5.4 million children are projected to suffer from acute malnutrition.

The food security assessment identified Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Sokoto and Zamfara states among the areas most affected, citing insecurity, displacement and limited access to farmlands as major drivers of the crisis.

According to the report, although the prices of some staple grains such as maize and sorghum have shown signs of stabilising, the cost of complementary food items and agricultural inputs remains significantly high.

“Even though staple food prices have stabilised somewhat, the cost of complementary food items and services such as food haulage remains high. Prices of essential complementary foods, including vegetable oils, dairy products, meat and condiments, remain more than 35 per cent above average, reducing households’ purchasing power,” the report stated.

The report attributed the worsening food situation to a combination of insecurity, climate-related shocks, rising transportation costs, exchange rate volatility and the increasing prices of fertilisers, improved seeds and other farm inputs.

It also noted that while food importation has helped moderate prices in some urban areas, it has placed additional pressure on local farmers by reducing returns on their produce and limiting their ability to invest in future farming activities.

Speaking at the presentation of the report, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Marcus Ogunbiyi, described the findings as a wake-up call for stakeholders to strengthen domestic food production and improve support for vulnerable households.

He said the Federal Government would use the findings to better target agricultural intervention programmes, including the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP), with a focus on improving access to seeds, fertilisers and other inputs for farmers in the most affected communities.

The Cadre Harmonisé analysis is a regional food security assessment framework used across West Africa to identify populations facing food crises and guide governments and humanitarian organisations in planning timely interventions.