Rewana doubts NBS inflation data, warns of JAMB-style flaws

Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company, has raised serious concerns over the credibility of Nigeria’s latest inflation figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), suggesting that the data may be deeply flawed and reflective of systemic issues.

The NBS recently announced that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped slightly to 23.71% in April 2025, down from 24.23% in March.

However, Rewane has questioned the validity of this figure, citing glaring inconsistencies between inflation trends in food-producing and food-consuming states.

“Inflation was highest in Benue (51%), Ekiti (34%), and Kebbi (33%)—states known for food production,” Rewane noted. “Conversely, consuming states like Ebonyi (7.19%), Adamawa (9.52%), and Ogun (9.91%) reported much lower rates. How is it that where food is produced, prices are soaring, yet where it’s consumed, inflation is low?”

Rewane likened the inconsistency to the recent 2025 JAMB exam scandal, in which technical errors compromised national exam results. “Are we seeing a JAMB-type situation here?” he asked.

“If the numbers are not credible, then we must question the methodology used in collecting and interpreting this data.”

The economist pointed out that the difference in inflation between Benue and Ogun is nearly 43%, which he described as “inconceivable,” suggesting a potential distortion in data collection or analysis.

Food Price Volatility and Unstable Trends

Rewane also questioned the sustainability of reported food price drops, warning that any recent reductions in staple prices may be misleading.

“Yes, food prices have come down slightly in some areas, but are they sustainable?” he asked. “Take rice, for example. Its price has been highly volatile—first falling due to increased imports and later due to fears over allegedly contaminated rice.”

He also highlighted that tomato prices surged by 107% due to the “tomato ebola” outbreak, while dairy prices remained relatively stable, pointing to inconsistent patterns in Nigeria’s food basket.

Market Forces vs. Government Interventions

Criticizing government efforts to directly control food supply and pricing, Rewane argued that such approaches are counterproductive.

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“The government producing or selling food is not the solution,” he said. “Markets determine efficient prices. The seller brings rice to the market, and the consumer—based on income—decides whether to buy. That’s how equilibrium is reached.”

He noted that inflation stems from both supply and demand factors: production disruptions due to insecurity and rising logistics costs, and consumer demand driven by liquidity in the system.

Rewane concluded by stating that while the Central Bank can manage demand through interest rate policies, true price stability requires structural improvements.

“Monetary policy alone can’t fix this. We need better power supply, efficient transport systems, reduced business costs, and increased agricultural yields. Only then can we see real output growth and price equilibrium,” he said.

Rewane’s comments cast fresh light on the credibility of Nigeria’s economic data, urging both policymakers and the public to scrutinize statistical reports more critically amid ongoing inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty.