ADC Coalition at crossroads of rescue mission

The coalition of political elite that migrated into the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is seemingly at crossroads on its rescue mission of bad governance in Nigeria, and may be confronting uncertainty of consensus building and united political forte over conflict of interest in the jostle for the presidential ticket of the ADC coalition for the 2027 general elections. This is consequence upon two contending leadership idealistic perspectives or political calculus in the country.

All stakeholders in the ADC coalition are of the consensus that the country has witnessed the emergence of presidents based on zoning or power rotation to satisfy ethnic and regional prejudices, but argue that the country has not been able to produce the best of leadership through that process. They are also of the consensus that the time has come for Nigerians to elect leaders based on capacity to deliver, merit and credibility. They, therefore, advocate merit in the choice of a presidential candidate in the 2027 general election. The ADC is apparently taking Nigeria and Nigerians away from the promise of CHANGE by the APC to RESCUE of the country by the coalition.

ADC stakeholders facing the task of working for the unity of the coalition

However, on the second political calculus, the political elite in the coalition are divided on the issue of zoning of the presidential ticket to the South for the 2027 general elections. Though, this is the argument the elite tended to deflate in the advocacy for merit rather than power rotation.

Meanwhile, in the ADC, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 general elections; Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in 2023; and Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, presidential aspirant of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2023; are frontline potential presidential aspirants in the ADC coalition. There may be others who could be revealed in the processes of subsequent horse trading in the coalition.

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Atiku and his loyalists are discountenancing zoning and power rotation, and pursuing the presidential ambition on the premium of merit and capacity to lead. Thus, Atiku has defied all calls to withdraw from the 2027 presidential race and allow the coalition to nominate a southern presidential candidate, thus, deepening the phenomenon of ADC Coalition at crossroads of its rescue mission.

Peter Obi is also not giving anything to change, insisting that he is eminently qualified to contest for the president in 2027. His supporters are insisting on Obi being a presidential candidate of his party in 2027, threatening that they cannot accept anything less, not even vice presidential ticket.

Such extremism position exacerbates the phenomenon of ADC coalition at crossroads of cohesion.

According to Yunusa Tanko, Interim National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, “Peter Obi has made it clear; he will not be in any c that doesn’t align with Nigerians.

“When the time comes, he will choose a platform on which to contest; at this point, the discussions are based on the interests of the Nigerian people.”

Amaechi appears to be a seeming balance of power between Atiku and Obi in the race for the ADC presidential ticket in 2027.

Apparently, the ADC coalition is beclouded with conflicts of interests among the identifiable presidential aspirants. This is, hypothetically, exacerbated by ego politics and unwillingness to make sacrifice by the contending aspirants.

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ADC leadership has responded positively to the impending precarious mode in the party, assuring that the presidential candidate of the party would emerge through keenly contested party primary at the national convention. Thus, the party leadership would be providing transparent democratic process in the nomination of the 2027 presidential candidate.

Curiously, Atiku has set the pace for negotiation, bargaining and trade off towards the 2027 presidential election. He has promised to serve for one tenure and quit office. He and his loyalists, therefore, offered Obi the vice presidential ticket for 2027, after which Obi may step into Atiiku’s shoes in the subsequent presidential race. This has been vehemently rejected by the Obidient Movement, even before Obi could respond.

However, there are some stakeholders from the South who worked with Peter Obi in 2023 who are perceived to be shifting loyalty to Atiku. A notable Obidient Movement and LP presidential spokesperson in 2023, Kenneth Okonkwo, who had resigned from the Labour Party and, had disagreement with Obi on principles, has been advocating for a presidential candidate from the North for the coalition as the joker to wrest power from the APC and unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Okonkwo predicated his argument on the political calculus of North/South dichotomy and the voting history across the two climes. He cited the experiences of late President Muhammadu Buhari in 2007 against late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and in 2015 against former President Goodluck Jonathan.

Paradoxically, Ken Okonwko may be routing for Atiku, who is currently the leading presidential aspirant from the North in the ADC coalition.

Meanwhile, Atiku has resigned his membership of the PDP, but yet to officially join the ADC, though his loyalists are already there. Atiku’s exit from the PDP, with his loyalists and associates, has significantly reduced the political stature of the PDP, while reinforcing the ADC as a frontline and formidable Opposition Political Party in Nigeria. Pertinently, Atiku and his associates would be ossifying the ADC with potent political structures.

Obi is yet to resign from the Labour Party despite ultimatum from the LP leadership. Also, Obi is yet to make proposal or stimulate bargaining and horse trading for the 2027 presidential ticket of the coalition. Besides acknowledging his qualification and credibility to be Nigeria’s president, like Atiku, he is not known to have made any overture to other political elite, or initiate tradeoff for the desired joint presidential ticket in 2027.

However, Peter Obi grassroots populist influence is garnering momentum with every of his public appearance across the country. This increase the political capital and electoral value Obi would be providing for the coalition in the ADC.

However, perturbations that Obi may pull out of the coalition are rife.  And that, again, would imply splitting populist votes in the polity, then, weakening the coalition.

While former Governor Nasir El-Rufai is working with the coalition, he remains a member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He is expected to join the ADC to consolidate the coalition’s political forte towards the 2027 general elections, and eliminate the phobia of ADC coalition at crossroads  on the mission to rescue Nigeria.

El-Rufai is not indicating interest for the presidential ticket of the coalition, but he has positioned himself as power broker and kingmaker in the bloc.

Rotimi Amaechi and El-Rufai are taking away certain bloc from the ruling APC to the coalition in the ADC; this could further fortify the political machine of the ADC in the South-South  for the 2027 general elections.

Part of the APC bloc in the ADC coalition is also led by former APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. His ‘personal unambitious’ membership of the coalition could contribute in defraying the ADC coalition at crossroads underlays.

There are indications that the ADC has quality leadership in former President of the Senate David Mark, being the Acting National Chairman; and former Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State, also former Minister of Interior in the Buhari administration, being the Interim National Secretary. The anticipation is that the leadership should deploy experience and administrative dexterity to ensure flexible horse trading, bargaining and tradeoffs between the ambitious elite towards consensus building and making concessions in the battle for the 2027 presidential ticket.

ADC Coalition under the leadership of David Mark, Acting National Chairman; Rauf Aregbesola, Acting National Secretary, assuring Nigerians of commitment to common goal

Accordingly, the African Democratic Congress, on Monday declared @ADCcoalition,

“Atiku, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola, Nasir El-Rufai, and our Interim National Chairman are united in this coalition.

“We are committed to a common goal: reclaiming power for the people through democratic, peaceful, and credible means.

“Those we seek to replace are united in rigging, violence, intimidation, and failure.

“Let us remain focused and avoid any divisive or hateful rhetoric. Our strength lies in unity and purpose.”