IMF revises down Nigeria’s 2024 GDP growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its forecast for Nigeria’s real GDP growth in 2024, lowering it from 3.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

This revision was disclosed in the IMF’s latest update titled “Global Economy in a Sticky Spot,” published recently.

The IMF cited weaker-than-expected economic activity in Nigeria during the first quarter of 2024 as the primary reason for this downgrade.

In addition to revising Nigeria’s growth outlook, the IMF also adjusted its projections for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), reducing the region’s growth forecast from 3.8 per cent to 3.7 per  ent.

According to the IMF report, this adjustment reflects a 0.2 percentage point decrease primarily due to subdued economic performance in Nigeria.

While maintaining growth projections for other major African economies unchanged at 0.9 per cent in 2024 and 1.2 per cent in 2025, the IMF noted a slight decline in growth forecasts for Egypt, from 3.0 per cent to 2.7 per cent in 2024, and from 4.4 per cent to 4.1 per cent in 2025.

Globally, the IMF reaffirmed its earlier forecasts of steady growth at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025. The report highlighted differing trends among economies, with advanced economies showing convergence in growth rates. Notably, the projected growth rate for the United States was adjusted downward to 2.6 per cent for 2024.

In contrast, emerging markets and developing economies are expected to experience upward revisions in growth projections, driven by robust economic activity in Asia, particularly in China and India.

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However, the report pointed to challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean, where growth forecasts for 2024 were adjusted downward for countries like Brazil and Mexico due to specific economic factors such as flooding and demand moderation.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s own National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in GDP growth to 2.98 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, down from 3.46 per cent in the previous quarter.

The services sector was a key contributor to this performance, expanding by 4.32 per cent and accounting for 58.04 per cent of the overall GDP.

Despite these adjustments, the federal government remains optimistic, expecting the Nigerian economy to grow by 3.76 per cent in 2024, a figure higher than projections from several international development organizations.