Key counties to watch in tight Harris-Trump election race

As the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump heats up, recent polls indicate that this election could be one of the closest in history.

The outcome may hinge not just on key swing states but on specific counties within those states. Here’s a detailed look at eight pivotal counties to keep an eye on come election night.

Cobb County, Georgia

Cobb County, located just northwest of Atlanta, exemplifies how demographic shifts can influence political landscapes. Once a solidly Republican bastion, the county has transformed, now comprising 30% Black, 15% Latino, and about 6% Asian residents, with nearly 16% being immigrants.

This diversification has been accompanied by economic prosperity, as companies like Home Depot and the Weather Channel are headquartered here.

In recent elections, Cobb has leaned Democratic, with Hillary Clinton narrowly winning in 2016 and Joe Biden expanding that margin significantly in 2020, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia since 1992.

For Harris to secure Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, she must retain support from suburban Republicans and continue to engage voters of color, who show signs of shifting towards Trump. A failure to maintain her lead in Cobb could jeopardize her chances statewide.

Waukesha County, Wisconsin

Harris doesn’t need to win every suburb in Wisconsin; she simply needs to reduce the Republican margin in key areas like Waukesha County. This county, long a Republican stronghold, has shown signs of trending more moderate, particularly among white, affluent, college-educated voters who oppose Trump and support abortion rights.

In 2020, while Trump won Waukesha, his margin dropped significantly compared to previous elections, largely due to Biden outperforming past Democratic candidates. With a population of 400,000, small shifts in voter turnout here could significantly affect statewide results, as Biden’s performance in Waukesha contributed to his narrow victory in Wisconsin.

Washoe County, Nevada

In Nevada, Washoe County serves as a crucial political bellwether. Comprising the cities of Reno and Sparks, it can sway the state’s overall results. Biden managed to win Washoe in 2020 by a larger margin than Clinton did in 2016, which was vital for his overall success in Nevada.

With the county experiencing an influx of high-tech jobs thanks to companies like Tesla, Harris needs to maintain or expand upon Biden’s winning margin in Washoe, especially as polls indicate that Trump is gaining ground among Hispanic voters, who make up about 20% of the state’s electorate.

Wayne County, Michigan

Wayne County, home to Detroit, is another critical area for Harris. Despite Trump’s limited chances of winning here, his performance could provide insight into his overall success in Michigan. With a diverse population, including 38% Black Americans and a significant Arab American community, any drop in Harris’s support could spell trouble statewide.

Recent polling suggests diminishing support among these key demographics, particularly in light of discontent regarding the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict. Yet, past successes for Democrats in the county and a disorganized GOP could work in Harris’s favor.

Douglas County, Nebraska

Though Nebraska has leaned Republican for decades, Douglas County, which encompasses Omaha, is a notable exception. With the state’s unique electoral system, where congressional districts can split votes, Douglas County holds considerable sway. Harris could secure a vital electoral vote here if she can maintain or build upon Biden’s success in 2020.

The demographic makeup is largely white and educated, with significant suburban growth and a diverse community, providing a promising backdrop for Harris. The political stakes are high, especially with close races in the region and significant ballot measures that could drive voter turnout.

Erie County, Pennsylvania

As one of Pennsylvania’s most crucial counties, Erie reflects the broader state dynamics and has consistently voted in alignment with Pennsylvania’s presidential results since 1992. A recent poll shows Harris with a slight edge over Trump, but the competitiveness of the county suggests it could be a nail-biter.

Given the county’s mixed urban and rural political landscape, any shifts in voter sentiment could have profound implications for the statewide race. Harris will need to navigate these dynamics carefully to secure Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.

Maricopa County, Arizona

Maricopa County, encompassing the Phoenix area, has become a microcosm of the political shifts in Arizona. Biden’s 2020 victory here was pivotal for his overall win, making the county a focal point for both campaigns. Trump is working to regain ground, bolstered by gains in voter registration and issues like border security that resonate with many constituents.

Harris can counter this trend by leveraging strong turnout among moderate Republicans and emphasizing abortion rights, which remain a significant issue for many voters in the region.

Cabarrus County

Cabarrus County has traditionally voted Republican, but Biden’s performance in 2020 marked a significant shift, bringing the Democratic margin closer than it had been in decades. The county’s demographics are evolving, with increasing Black, Asian, and Hispanic populations that could influence future elections.

For Harris, the strategy will not necessarily be to win Cabarrus outright but to minimize Trump’s victory margin while boosting turnout in urban areas like Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham. This approach could mirror Obama’s surprising 2008 statewide success.

As the election approaches, these counties will be pivotal in determining the outcome. Each presents its own unique challenges and opportunities for both candidates, making them critical to watch on election night.